Dinger Tuesday is here, and this might be the most generous wind day for hitters and MLB player props that I've seen in weeks.
Dean Kremer is circled heavily today as a home-run-prone pitcher, with 18-mph winds blowing out, and despite playing indoors, Aaron Nola has to find his name on the home run card, and I'm double-dipping with a pair of Marlins bats that measure up well against the beleaguered right-hander.
These are my favorite MLB home run predictions for Tuesday, July 28.
- UPDATE: Added another HR pick + parlay.
Best MLB home run props today
| Player to hit a HR | Odds |
|---|---|
 Kevin McGonigle |
+488 |
 Kyle Stowers |
+373 |
| Heriberto Hernandez |
+474 |
| 💲Today's HR parlay | +11648 |
Home run pick: Kevin McGonigle (+488)
Dean Kremer is always a good pitcher fade and even better today on the road with 18-mph winds blowing out to center field. Lefties always give the Baltimore starter trouble, with 70% of his home runs allowed this year and 66% since 2024. That puts me on a Detroit Tigers left-handed bat, and I'm settling on the rookie, Kevin McGonigle, at +488.
The AL Rookie of the Year odds favorite (-240) has a fair price of around +420, with his last HR cashing at +375 vs. another righty in Ryan Johnson. Looking under the hood, his IdealAtkAng% tops the team over the last week, and he is getting a ton of balls in play with just a 4% walk rate and hitting .306 over his last nine games, which comes with a hit in all but one of those games.
Is he crushing the ball right now? Not exactly, but this matchup and wind are enough to aid any hitter, especially one who owns a .859 OPS vs. right-handers and might not have to face any left-handed options out of the Baltimore bullpen today.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Detroit SportsNet, MASN
Home run pick: Kyle Stowers (+373)
The left-handed Kyle Stowers gets to unleash his Top-50 bat speed against one of the most homer-friendly pitchers in baseball, Aaron Nola. Only Jeffrey Springs has allowed more home runs this season, and Springs at least has the excuse of pitching at Sutter Health Park. Nola doesn't.
Left-handed hitters have done the most damage, hitting nearly twice as many home runs as righties against the Phillies starter since 2024. He ranks 25th among MLB starters in HR/9 and 24th in HR/FB rate. Six of Nola's last eight starts have turned into multi-homer outings, with 14 long balls allowed over that 42-inning stretch.
You could make a case for several Marlins bats today, but I like the price on Stowers the most. He also projects as Miami's most likely hitter to go deep. Heriberto Hernandez at +450 or better was another strong consideration, and pairing the two in an HRRBI stack at plus money is worth a look.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Marlins.TV, NBC Sports Philadelphia
Home run pick: Heriberto Hernandez (+474)
Call me lazy, but I'm doubling down on Nola. I already have Stowers on the card, but Hernandez is just as appealing at this price.
Since the start of July, Hernandez leads the Marlins in home runs (7), slugging percentage (.684), ISO (.382), and xwOBA (.384). He's not just taking advantage of one side of the plate either, as he has shown power against both right- and left-handed pitching.
Only five players in MLB have hit more home runs than Hernandez during July, and his power surge lines up perfectly with today's matchup.
Nola might be the best home run target on the slate, and I'm happy to double-dip with these Marlins bats.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Marlins.TV, NBCS Sports Philadelphia
- HR picks: 25-141, -20.23 units
Today’s HR combo
| Kevin McGonigle |
Trade Now +11648 |
| Kyle Stowers |
|
| Heriberto Hernandez |
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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