It's a small slate Thursday with fewer pitchers to fade and MLB player props to dig into, but there are certainly some dingers showing value on the board.
Shane Bieber is the best home run target today, and some left-handed bats have a big bump with no good left-handed arms in the Jays' bullpen. Bieber's reverse splits are also making Junior Caminero and that swing very appetizing at his current odds.
In the late game, there is another reverse-split matchup with Dillon Dingler that is showing legit value.
These are my favorite home run props for Thursday, July 23.
- UPDATE: Added another HR pick + parlay.
Best MLB home run props today
| Player to hit a HR | Odds |
|---|---|
 Victor Mesa Jr. |
+563 |
| Junior Caminero |
+245 |
 Dillon Dingler |
+569 |
| 💲Today's HR parlay | +12839 |
Home run pick: Victor Mesa Jr. (+563)
Eight home runs in just 38 games and 120 plate appearances is pretty impressive for the rookie outfielder, and he's heating up in a hurry with three homers since Saturday, including two in this series against Toronto.
Victor Mesa Jr. is a left-handed bat, but the pinch-hit risk is minimal today with Toronto likely having just one lefty available in the bullpen — Brendon Little and his 17.61 ERA.
He'll open the game against Shane Bieber, who is coming off a strong outing against the White Sox, but the underlying numbers are still ugly. Bieber ranks in the Bottom 10 among starters in both HR/9 and HR/FB rate, and no starter owns a worse BlastContact% this season.
Seven of the 29 hits he's allowed have left the yard through just five starts. The walks are climbing, and the meatballs keep getting crushed.
One stat that really stands out is the swing speed against Bieber. No starter has a higher average swing speed against at 74.1 mph, and 48.6% of swings against him qualify as "fast swings" of at least 75 mph. Hitters are taking absolute hacks against him.
The Tampa bats project well today, and Mesa is a buy for me down to +500.
- Time: 3:07 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Sportsnet, Rays.TV
Home run pick: Junior Caminero (+245)
Let's keep picking on Bieber, but this time I'm going to the right side because the reverse splits are very real.
Right-handed hitters are batting .396 against Bieber this season compared to just .208 for lefties. There are a few appealing Tampa Bay right-handed bats today, but I'm not getting cute.
Junior Caminero owns the fastest average swing speed in baseball at 79.8 mph, and 88% of his swings register at 75 mph or higher. You can't cheat that kind of bat speed, and it's a big reason why his underlying hitting metrics are among the league's best.
The matchup couldn't be much better. Bieber allows the fastest average swing speed against of any MLB starter, meaning hitters are loading up and taking full cuts against him. That's exactly the profile you want for a power hitter like Caminero.
Reverse splits aren't always fully priced into the market, so there's still value here. The break-even price should be around +225.
- Time: 3:07 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Sportsnet, Rays.TV
Home run pick: Dillon Dingler (+569)
Dillon Dingler continues to offer value against right-handed pitching because he's a true reverse-splits hitter who crushes righties. He owns a .928 OPS against RHPs this season, and 18 of his 22 home runs have come against them.
He's also in the middle of a power binge after launching three homers in the Cubs series while going 7-for-12 with a ridiculous 2.032 OPS at Wrigley.
Detroit gets Triple-A arm Randy Dobnak, whose 1.93 ERA paints a much prettier picture than his underlying numbers. His 5.61 xERA and 5.68 FIP suggest regression is coming, and his LOB% and BABIP have been carrying him.
This is a great home run price for a reverse-splits hitter in excellent form against a pitcher who has been living on borrowed time.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Royals.TV, DSN
- HR picks: 25-138, -17.23 units
Today’s HR parlay
| Victor Mesa Jr. |
Bet Now +12839 |
| Junior Caminero |
|
| Dillon Dingler |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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