It's a quiet slate across the big leagues today, but I've still found immense value in my MLB player props home run analysis.
Ronald Acuna Jr. will get things started, followed by Jarren Duran.
Read more in my MLB picks for Thursday, June 4.
Best MLB home run props today
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Ronald Acuna Jr.
Jarren Duran
Home run pick: Ronald Acuna Jr. (+467)
Ronald Acuña Jr. is in the middle of one of the hottest stretches of his season. Over the last week, the Atlanta Braves superstar owns a barrel rate north of 35% and a hard-hit rate above 60%, indicating he's consistently generating elite contact quality. Acuna has already hit five home runs in his last five games.
The Toronto Blue Jays will use Mason Fluharty as an opener before turning things over to the bullpen. Fluharty has allowed a 45.5% hard-hit rate across his last five appearances, while Toronto's relievers own a 12.5% HR/FB rate over the last week.
That could be problematic against a hitter like Acuna, who has put 54.5% of his contact in the air during that span. With the Braves outfielder consistently elevating and barreling baseballs, this matchup offers another opportunity for his power surge to continue.
I'd play this pick up to +400.
- Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: BravesVision, Sportsnet One
Home run pick: Jarren Duran (+610)
Jarren Duran is swinging the bat well lately, collecting four doubles and two home runs across his last six games. The Boston Red Sox outfielder has also turned his fly balls into damage, posting a 40% HR/FB rate during that stretch.
The matchup is what stands out most, however. Trevor Rogers has been extremely vulnerable to power lately, allowing 2.53 home runs per nine innings alongside a 6.66 FIP across his last two starts. Opponents have also generated a 47.2% hard-hit rate, 11.1% barrel rate, and 22.7 average launch angle against him.
Those indicators suggest hitters are consistently making dangerous contact against Rogers, creating an appealing opportunity for a hot bat like Duran.
I'd play this pick up to +550.
- Time: 1:35 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: NESN, MASN
- HR picks: 9-54, -9.56 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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