Another full slate in the big leagues means lots of opportunity for long balls in my MLB player props home run analysis.
Included in today's picks are Alejandro Kirk, Jordan Walker, and Pete Alonso.
Find out more in my MLB picks for Saturday, August 22.
- UPDATE: Added Pete Alonso HR pick + parlay.
Best MLB home run props today
| Player to hit a HR | Odds |
|---|---|
 Jordan Walker |
+442 |
 Pete Alonso |
+414 |
 Alejandro Kirk |
+442 |
| 💲Today's HR parlay | +14944 |
Home run pick: Jordan Walker (+442)
St. Louis Cardinals star Jordan Walker is tearing the cover off the baseball right now. He's gone deep in three straight games, and the slugger has four long balls in his last eight contests.
During that span, Walker has a .471 ISO and a mind-boggling 22.2% barrel rate. He's consistently getting lift as well, posting a 55.6% fly ball rate in the last week.
Walker will face Andrew Painter tonight, who has a 6.08 FIP in his previous two outings while allowing 1.74 HR/9 and a fly ball rate of 41.4%.
One mistake from Painter could be punished by one of the hottest bats in the big leagues.
I'll play this pick down to +400.
- Time: 6:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: NBC Sports Philadelphia, Cardinals.TV
Home run pick: Alejandro Kirk (+442)
Alejandro Kirk may not be a player who hits a lot of home runs, but he's showcasing his power lately. The Toronto Blue Jays catcher has two bombs in his last six games and a .304 ISO.
Although his fly ball rate isn't huge during the last week, Kirk is consistently squaring up the baseball, posting a 50% hard-hit rate.
Ryan Weathers hasn't allowed a lot of home run damage lately, but the New York Yankees' bullpen is vulnerable to the long ball at times, surrendering 1.26 HR/9 across the last month.
Kirk is hot, and one mistake could see him leave the yard again.
Play this pick down to +400.
Time: 1:35 p.m. ET
Where to watch: YES, Sportsnet
Home run pick: Pete Alonso (+414)
Pete Alonso is really finding his power stroke lately. The Baltimore Orioles slugger has clubbed four home runs in his last seven appearances with an ISO of .481. His slugging also sits at a ridiculous .981.
Alonso will face Shane McClanahan tonight, and while it's a small sample size, he has homered off him before. However, where I see the best chance for Alonso to go deep is when the left-hander exits.
The Tampa Bay Rays' bullpen has allowed 1.59 HR/9 over the last week, and over half of Alonso's homers have come at home.
Play this pick down to +400.
- Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MASN, Rays.TV
- HR picks: 18-88, -4.89 units
Today’s HR combo
| Jordan Walker |
Trade Now +14944 |
| Pete Alonso |
|
| Alejandro Kirk |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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