For today's busy slate, I've found the value in the MLB player props home run market.
I'll include Michael Massey, Isaac Paredes, and Andrew Benintendi.
Read more in my MLB picks for Saturday, June 6.
Best MLB home run props today
| Player to hit a HR | Odds |
|---|---|
 Michael Massey |
+640 |
 Isaac Paredes |
+510 |
 Andrew Benintendi |
+435 |
| 💲Today's HR parlay | +24702 |
Home run pick: Michael Massey (+640)
He may not be a household name, but Michael Massey is torching baseballs right now.
He has three homers in his last six games and a 47.6% hard-hit rate during that span. The 21.2-degree average launch angle over the last week also stands out, and it's particularly important for this matchup.
Joe Ryan takes the hill for the Minnesota Twins, and he's allowed a 43.2% hard-hit rate across his last two outings. Additionally, 47.2% of the contact against him during that stretch has come through the air, with 17.6% of those fly balls leaving the yard.
With Massey consistently generating hard contact and lift, and Ryan struggling to keep the ball on the ground lately, this is an appealing spot for another long ball.
I'll play this pick up to +600.
- Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Royals.TV, Twins.TV
Home run pick: Isaac Paredes (+510)
Houston Astros third baseman Isaac Paredes has an astounding .550 ISO over his last six games, and it's no surprise that he's also gone deep three times.
But it gets better.
He also owns a 62.5% hard-hit rate and 25% barrel rate over the last week, with an average launch angle just above 20 degrees.
The matchup tonight will see him face Athletics rookie Kade Morris, who is making his big-league debut. While there's limited data on Morris at this level, he did allow eight home runs across 11 Triple-A starts before his promotion.
That's far from ideal against a hitter swinging the bat as well as Paredes.
With the Astros third baseman consistently generating elite power numbers, this looks like another favorable spot for a long ball. I'll play this pick up to +450.
- Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: NBC Sports California, Space City Home Network
Home run pick: Andrew Benintendi (+435)
Andrew Benintendi has a .500 ISO across his previous six contests, along with a 61.5% hard-hit rate and 23.1% barrel rate. The Chicago White Sox slugger is consistently squaring up the baseball, and he'll face Philadelphia Phillies starter Andrew Painter this afternoon.
Painter has given up 1.86 home runs per nine innings across his last two appearances, while opponents have generated a 36.4% hard-hit rate against him. Additionally, 51% of the contact against Painter during that span has come through the air.
His 5.32 xFIP also suggests he's been vulnerable lately.
While Benintendi's fly-ball rate over the last week sits just below 40%, his recent power surge is difficult to ignore. If Painter continues allowing elevated contact, Benintendi has a strong opportunity to take advantage.
I'll play this pick up to +400.
- Time: 4:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Chicago Sports Network, NBC Sports Philadelphia
- HR picks: 9-60, -15.56 units
Today’s HR parlay
| Michael Massey |
Bet Now +24702 |
| Isaac Paredes |
|
| Andrew Benintendi |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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