Every team is in action tonight across the Majors, which means lots of opportunity for more bombs.
My MLB player props analysis will be highlighted by Juan Soto, Nick Castellanos, and Dansby Swanson.
Best MLB home run props today
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Soto (+425) -
Castellanos (+500) -
Swanson (+500) - 💲 +18800 parlay💲
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HR Prop #1: Juan Soto
Juan Soto’s slow start to 2025 is very much in the rearview now. While he’s hitting just .248, the power numbers are showing up. Soto has 32 bombs, and he’s gone deep seven times this month. Tonight, the New York Mets face the Miami Marlins, who send Eury Perez to the hill.
Soto has never faced him, but Perez has allowed seven homers this year in 14 outings, including five in August. Four of his bombs surrendered have come off the bats of left-handed hitters like Soto. The Mets star has also done most of his damage against right-handed hurlers, smacking 25 home runs.
We could see No. 33 in the second game of this series.
HR Prop #2: Nick Castellanos
This isn’t the most popular pick because Nick Castellanos is batting under .200 in August, with minimal home runs. However, when you see tonight’s matchup, it will be hard not to lock it in. The Philadelphia Phillies face the Atlanta Braves again after beating them up 19-4 on Thursday, and Castellanos will be loving who is on the mound for the visitors.
Bryce Elder gets the ball, who has given up 22 bombs this year and has an ERA over six. Most importantly, Castellanos has done no wrong against him. He’s 4-for-8 lifetime with four home runs.
Castellanos got the day off for the series opener, but he’ll definitely be back in the lineup here. He needs something to get him going offensively again, and seeing Elder on the bump may be just it. You simply cannot ignore that ridiculous track record.
HR Prop #3: Dansby Swanson
Dansby Swanson is up to 19 home runs on the year to go along with a .247 average. On both sides of the ball, he’s a key player for the Chicago Cubs. The shortstop just smacked No. 19 on Thursday against the San Francisco Giants, and I’m taking him to reach the 20-homer mark tonight.
The Cubbies head to The Mile High City to take on the Colorado Rockies. As we all know, the ball flies in Denver because of the elevation. Plus, the Rox send German Marquez to the mound, a guy with a 5.67 ERA. He’s also surrendered 13 bombs in 20 starts.
Most notably, Swanson is 5-for-10 lifetime off Marquez with one home run. He also has 13 of his round-trippers off right-handed pitchers. This pick is certainly worth a look.
Today’s HR parlay
Soto
Castellanos
Swanson
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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