The weekend has finally arrived! Let's get the night rolling by backing some guys to go yard!
These are my top looks to leave the yard, featuring Alec Burleson and Tyler Soderstrom in these MLB player props.
Best MLB home run props today
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Alec Burleson
Tyler Soderstrom
Home run pick: Alec Burleson (+434)
It is time to back the burly boy from St. Louis, Mr. Alec Burleson!
Entering Friday, the St. Louis Cardinals slugger carries an elite rating on Batters-Box while also covering 100% of Cincinnati Reds right-hander Rhett Lowder's pitch mix.
The big fella has been seeing the ball extremely well against right-handed pitching, posting a .308 BA, .343 wOBA, 45.5% hard hit rate, and 18.2% barrel rate over his last 30 plate appearances.
Lowder, meanwhile, has been getting crushed by left-handed hitters, especially on the road. Lefties are batting .350 against him with a .583 SLG and .444 wOBA, while producing a 41.2% hard hit rate and 68.6% elevation rate.
With Burleson being one of the hottest hitters in the Cardinals lineup over the last week, I love this spot for him to do damage against Lowder.
- Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: CARD, CINR
Home run pick: Tyler Soderstrom (+362)
One of my all-time favorite pitchers to fade is Minnesota Twins right-hander Zebby Matthews. Why? Well, he is always getting crushed.
Over his last three starts, Matthews owns a 10.54 ERA and 2.19 WHIP while allowing a 42.55% hard hit rate and 12.77% barrel rate. That is why I want to target one of the hottest bats in the Athletics lineup this evening.
Tyler Soderstrom stood out the most to me, as he is batting .346 with a .731 SLG and 1.164 OPS over his last 30 plate appearances against right-handed pitching. He also covers 99.2% of Matthews' pitch mix.
Matthews has struggled against left-handed hitters all season, with the last 60 he has faced posting a .438 xBA, .848 xSLG, and .399 xwOBA.
With how well Soderstrom has been seeing the ball and how poorly Matthews has been pitching, this is a great spot to back the Athletics slugger to go yard in Minnesota this evening.
- Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: NBCSCA, MNNT
- HR picks: 86-302, +7.96 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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