Home Run Props and Odds for Tonight: FanDuel Dinger Tuesday Picks

Carlos Rodon has been giving up homers in bunches, making Randy Arozarena an appealing play to hit a home run, as is Seiya Suzuki at Camden Yards, highlighting our best bets for FanDuel's Dinger Tuesday.

Jared Hochman - Content Manager at Covers.com
Jared Hochman • Content Manager
Jul 9, 2024 • 16:09 ET
Randy Arozarena Tampa Bay Rays MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Tuesdays are for betting on home run props.

The unofficial-official day to bet on MLB player props for homers is the middle of the week — with several sportsbooks offering specific betting promotions related to long balls.

However, none are as popular as FanDuel's Dinger Tuesday, where for two different games, you place a $25 bet on a player to hit a home run and get $5 in bonus bets for every total home run hit in that game (regardless of who hits 'em).

I'll break down the best games to target, including a starting pitcher breakdown and best player values, for Dinger Tuesday tonight, July 9.

Best home run props and odds for FanDuel Dinger Tuesday

Cubs at Orioles (Oriole Park at Camden Yards, 6:35 p.m. ET)

Pitcher HR/9 HR/FB% FB%
Cubs Jameson Taillon (RHP) 1.1 8.8 45.1
Orioles Dean Kremer (RHP) 1.6 15.5 43.0

Taillon has allowed a HR in four straight games and five of his last six, and will try to navigate Baltimore — the most prolific home run-hitting team in the league. He has slight reverse platoon splits as righties have done a little more damage, although the O's will feature a buffet of lefty bats.

Kremer looked solid in his first start after six weeks on the injured list, but the righty had allowed a dinger in seven of his first nine starts this season, and his platoon splits are relatively even between both sides of the plate.

The MLB weather forecast is going to be hot in Baltimore, with winds blowing out to left field — a positive for power.

Hitters to target - Cubs
* = best price available

  • *Seiya Suzuki, RH (+520)
    Four HR and a whopping 73% FB rate vs. RHP last two weeks. Also hits to CF/LF 82% of the time.
  • Ian Happ, SH (+560)
    .370 with 45% fly-ball rate vs. righties last 14 days, has hits in eight of last 11 games.
  • *Michael Busch, LH (+680)
    Riding five-game hit streak, including HR in most recent game, and hitting .270 vs. RHP last two weeks. 

Hitters to target - Orioles

  • *Gunnar Henderson, LH (+420)
    .485 with two HR vs. RHP last two weeks, also has eight hits in last four games overall.
  • *Anthony Santander, SH (+400)
    Two HR, .323 average, 53% FB rate vs. righties last 14 days, also has two HR in 15 AB vs. Taillon.
  • *Heston Kjerstad, LH (+520)
    .300 with three HR and 69% FB rate vs. righties last two weeks. Homered in three of last seven games overall.
  • *Cedric Mullins, LH (+750)
    5-for-12 with two HR in career vs. Taillon, also hitting .269 with two HR and 65% FB rate against RHP L14.

Best betting value: Seiya Suzuki (+520 at FanDuel)

FanDuel Dinger Tuesday

Place a wager of $25 or more on a player to hit a home run bet, get $5 for every homer hit in that game — available for two different games!

Yankees at Rays (Tropicana Field, 6:50 p.m. ET)

Pitcher HR/9 HR/FB% FB%
Yankees Carlos Rodon (LHP) 1.6 12.8 49.5
Rays Ryan Pepiot (RHP) 1.3 12.0 47.7

The poor underlying metrics Rodon's been overcoming all season have finally come to the forefront, as the southpaw has been battered over his last four starts, including three straight games allowing multiple dingers. He's fourth among all MLB pitchers with 18 home runs surrendered this year — with righties hitting 16 of them (including 13 off his fastball) — and then the New York bullpen has allowed the most home runs over the last two weeks.

After giving up six dingers in a three-game span, Pepiot has gone three straight starts without allowing a single homer (albeit two of those games were vs. light-hitting opponents). His platoon splits are pretty even, as both sides hit his slider very hard, although righty hitters have been able to hit the ball in the air more consistently.

Hitters to target - Yankees
* = best price available

  • *Aaron Judge, RH (+210)
    MLB home run leader, albeit in a mini-slump, going hitless in four of last five.
  • *Juan Soto, LH (+360)
    56% FB rate vs. RHP over last two weeks, also 2-for-3 with one HR in career vs. Pepiot.
  • Ben Rice, LH (+430)
    First four career HRs under his belt, hitting .325 with 43% FB rate vs. RHP since being called up.
  • Alex Verdugo, LH (+630)
    58% FB rate vs. righties last two weeks, also hitting .440 off sliders vs. RHP.

Hitters to target - Rays

  • Isaac Paredes, RH (+560)
    Hitting .368 vs. LHP over the last month, with a .317 average vs. FB from southpaws.
  • *Yandy Diaz, RH (+600)
    .421 vs. LHP last 30 days, four hits (one HR) in last two games, is 3-for-9 w/HR vs. Rodon.
  • *Randy Arozarena, RH (+400)
    40% FB rate and .278 avg. vs. LHP L30, hits in eight of last nine overall, 2/5 w/HR vs. Rodon.

Best betting value: Randy Arozarena (+400 at FanDuel)

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