MLB Home Run Props, Picks & Odds Today for 4-10: Murphy's Law

James Bisson - Head of Content, Betting
James Bisson • Head of Content, Betting 16+ years betting experience
Updated: Apr 10, 2025 , 03:28 PM ET • 4 min read

Sean Murphy has already belted one homer since his activation, and he'll match up well against Phillies southpaw Jesus Luzardo. He and teammate Marcell Ozuna are two of our favorite home run picks on the slate.

Sean Murphy Atlanta Braves MLB
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We’ve got a fun Thursday to look forward to in the major leagues, and there should be some home runs hit in the nightcap.

We’ll take a look at two attackable pitchers who are bound to give up some home runs tonight and pick out the best hitters to profit with.

Here are my free MLB player props for Thursday, April 10.

Best MLB home run props today

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HR picks for April 10

Wilyer Abreu (+475 at DraftKings)

Chris Bassitt has allowed over one homer per nine innings in the past two seasons, and as a result we’ll pick out someone from the Boston Red Sox to go yard.

Nobody on this team came close to hitting sinkers like Wilyer Abreu last year, and it was hard to catch him and his 1.108 expected slugging percentage. He added five round-trippers to boot, and so far this year he’s off to a flying start with three homers in 13 games.

With his proficiency against sinkers and Bassitt continuing to pitch to more contact in the air — and quality contact, at that — firing up Abreu will be a good idea to begin the night.

Marcell Ozuna (+360 at DraftKings)

Jesus Luzardo has been a nice story this season for the Philadelphia Phillies, and he’s quickly returning to the form we’ve grown accustomed to seeing from the southpaw. With that said, he’s taken a big step back in the past few seasons when it comes to rolling up ground balls, something that was concerning last year in particular, given his low strikeout rate.

Luzardo has been cooking in that regard this year, but he’s also allowed three barrels in his two starts, which is cause for concern here as he sells out for strikeouts. I’ll go with Marcell Ozuna to connect on another homer as he continues swinging for the fences, putting a charge into a few on Wednesday night to no avail.

The Big Bear crushes lefties and is 3-for-10 off Luzardo in his career to boot, homering in one of those at-bats.

Sean Murphy (+500 at DraftKings)

I won’t leave this game — or Luzardo — alone, going with a second member of the Atlanta Braves to take him deep.

That man will be none other than Sean Murphy, a prolific home run hitter a couple of seasons ago before battling myriad injuries.

Murphy has gone right back to business with a homer in just nine at-bats this year, and it’s important to remember that this man had one of the highest xSLG marks in the league in 2023. He hit .274 and slugged .488 off lefties that season, and he’s always been a competent bat versus sliders — which he’ll see many of here.

  1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays (+650)
  2. Jose Ramirez, Guardians (+390)
  3. Mike Trout, Angels (+290)

Betting info courtesy of DraftKings

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James Bisson
Head of Content, Betting

James Bisson is the Editor-in-Chief at Covers. He has been a writer, reporter and editor for more than 20 years, including a nine-year stint with The Canadian Press and more than five years at theScore. He has covered dozens of marquee events including the 2010 Winter Olympics, the 2006 Stanley Cup final and Wrestlemania 23, and his work has appeared in more than 200 publications, including the Los Angeles Times, the Guardian, Yahoo! Sports, the Toronto Star and The Globe and Mail.

His book, “100 Greatest Canadian Sports Moments”, was a hardcover best-seller in Canada in 2008 and earned him appearances on CBC Radio and Canada AM. He has written more than 50 sportsbook reviews, more than 200 industry news articles, and dozens of other sportsbook-related content articles.

A graduate of the broadcast journalism program at Ryerson University (now Toronto Metropolitan University), James has been an avid bettor since the early 2000s, and cites bet365 as his favorite sports betting site due to its superior functionality and quick payouts. His biggest professional highlight: Covering Canada's first Olympic gold medal on home soil – and interviewing Bret Hart. Twice.

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