Happy July 4! A day full of friends, food, and fireworks — both in your backyard and on the baseball diamond!
Independence Day gives us a ton of MLB odds to bet on — from 11 a.m. ET until well after the sun sets — but we're going to focus on a couple of juicy evening matchups to target today for FanDuel Sportsbook's Dinger Tuesday promotion!
How it works: Place one $25 bet on a player to hit a home run every Tuesday... and get $5 in bonus bets for every total home run hit in that game — regardless of who hits 'em.
We'll be looking to cash on MLB home run odds for a game featuring a delightful combo of a homer-happy pitcher and a juggernaut offense, as well as two offenses capable of breaking out at any time.
So while you're all feasting on BBQ hotdogs and burgers, I'll give you the best MLB player props and values based on FanDuel's MLB odds to mow down with my favorite FanDuel Dinger Tuesday plays for July 4, 2023.
Best home run odds and props for FanDuel Dinger Tuesday
Atlanta Braves at Cleveland Guardians (Progressive Field, 7:10 p.m. ET)
Pitchers
| Pitcher | HR/9 | HR/FB% | FB% | HardHit % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kolby Allard* |
3.86 | 32.1 | 45.9 | 42.6 |
 Shane Bieber |
1.02 | 12.0 | 31.3 | 46.7 |
*2022 numbers
Hitters to target
Ballpark Pal's Park Factors have this as the third-most upgraded stadium for dingers today, with temperatures in the low 80s and winds blowing out to CF-RF.
Now, the Cleveland Guardians aren't exactly a powerful team — they're just 17th in HR against lefties since June 1 and 16th over the last two weeks — but Allard is a guy we can target.
The Atlanta Braves southpaw had a strong season debut vs. Minnesota a week ago, but he gave up nine homers in just 21 innings last year... and 29 dingers in just 124 2/3 innings in 2021 (10th most in baseball and third-worst HR/9 with pitchers over 120 IP).
He's got standard platoon splits, so we're looking at switch hitters Jose Ramirez (three homers and 44.4% FB rate vs. lefties over the last two weeks) at +400 and Josh Bell (+600), who is second on the team with four HR overall since June 1, as well as righty Amed Rosario (+830), who is hitting .385 off southpaws during this span too.
The real reason I'm targeting this game, however, is that the Braves are destroying righties right now (almost 20 more HR than the second-place team since June 1 and 2+ HR in nine of their last 11 games) and face Shane Bieber, who has allowed at least one homer in eight of his last 13 outings.
Lefties are devastating Bieber's cutter (.405 OBA), and the most obvious lefty hitter choice is Matt Olson (+285), who is hitting .359 with seven homers and a 60.6% fly-ball rate off righties over the last two weeks — and is hitting .316 on cutters from RHP this year.
Other lefties include the red-hot Michael Harris II (.343 with three HR vs. RHP over last two weeks) at +600, as well as switch-hitter Ozzie Albies, who has three HR and a 57.1% FB rate vs. righties over that span, at +520.
In terms of the same-side hitters, it starts with Ronald Acuna Jr. (+350), who is hitting .429 with five dingers off RHP in the last 14 days, but it certainly doesn't end there: Sean Murphy (+430) is hitting .389 with a 61.5% FB rate vs. RHP in the last two weeks — and is hitting .306 off sliders from righties this year (Biebers most HR-vulnerable pitch against RHB) — while Austin Riley (+400) and Marcell Ozuna (+420) both have three HR vs. righties over the last two weeks).
Best betting value: Matt Olson (+285)
Toronto Blue Jays at Chicago White Sox (Guaranteed Rate Field, 8:10 p.m. ET)
Pitchers
| Pitcher | HR/9 | HR/FB% | FB% | HardHit % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Chris Bassitt |
1.44 | 14.7 | 38.8 | 37.7 |
 Lucas Giolito |
1.45 | 12.3 | 48.0 | 41.5 |
Hitters to target
Ballpark Pal has this as the second-best conditions for dingers today (+22%), with the focus being on guys who can take advantage of the winds blowing out to left field.
That's helpful for two righty-heavy lineups, especially the Toronto Blue Jays, who will get to go after a struggling righty in Giolito that has allowed homers in four straight starts and 10 of his last 11 outings.
The Chicago White Sox pitcher has pretty even platoon splits and RHB hit his fastball especially hard, so we're looking at the red-hot George Springer (+420), who over the last two weeks is hitting .353 with two HR vs. RHP and is hitting .333 off fastballs from righties this year, as well as Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+340) as he has three homers off righties during the last 14 days and is hitting .341 off FB from RHP on the year.
Other righties to target include Bo Bichette (+560, hitting .429 on fastballs from RHP this year) and Matt Chapman, who is hitting .321 with a 47.4% FB rate off RHP over the last two weeks, at +340. The lone lefty worth targeting right now is Brandon Belt (+400), who has a 69.2% FB rate over the last 14 days against righties and is hitting .429 off sliders from RHP this year — the pitch that lefties hit the hardest off Giolito.
The boys from the South Side of Chicago will get to attack Bassit, who has given up HR in five of his last eight outings (three multi-HR games). Most of his damage has been done by lefty hitters, but the ChiSox don't really have any viable options aside from Jake Burger (hits .333 off curveballs from RHP, which is Bassitt's weakness against LHB) at +450 — but there are some hot righty bats ready to mash.
Chicago is eighth in the Majors in HR vs. righties over the last two weeks, led by Luis Robert Jr. (+360), who is hitting .429 with five HR and a 54.5% fly-ball rate during that span.
After Robert, there's also Eloy Jimenez, who is hitting .364 with two HR vs. RHP, at +400, while Seby Zavala (currently OTB, 57.1% fly-ball rate vs. RHP) and Andrew Vaughn (+540, .355 BA and 34.8% FB rate) are both swinging hot bats during the last two weeks.
Best betting value: Brandon Belt (+400)
Last week's recap:
- CIN at BAL: Two HR
- LAD at COL: Two HR
- Game with most HR: MIN/ATL and TB/ARI (Five HR)
Not intended for use in MA.
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