Last week we had what seemed like a bountiful day for betting on MLB home run odds — with a number of stadiums upgraded based on Ballpark Pal's Park Factors and games at both Coors Field and Great American Ball Park — and the day turned out to be a dud leaguewide.
Fast forward seven days, and the MLB schedule doesn't look especially appealing for betting homers (or playing FanDuel Sportsbook's Dinger Tuesday promotion), but that doesn't mean I'm not diving head-first into the MLB odds today as anything can happen.
Why? Because it's baseball, that's why.
A reminder of how Dinger Tuesday works: Place one $25 bet on a player to hit a home run... and get $5 in bonus bets for every total home run hit in that game — regardless of who hits 'em.
So without the obvious home run choices in front of me, I'm looking at betting on two of this month's homer-happiest team, along with a game that's fading HR-prone starters, while also calling out the best MLB player props values with my best Dinger Tuesday plays for August 15.
Best home run odds and props for FanDuel Dinger Tuesday
New York Mets at Atlanta Braves (Truist Park, 7:20 p.m. ET)
Pitchers
| Pitcher | HR/9 | HR/FB% | FB% | Barrel% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tylor Megill (RHP) |
1.25 | 12.5 | 34.7 | 9.6 |
 Bryce Elder (RHP) |
0.91 | 11.8 | 28.7 | 6.5 |
Neither Megill nor Elder has been overly homer prone: The New York Mets righty has allowed homers in three of his last five, while Elder is coming off seven innings of dominance vs. the Yankees... but had allowed a long ball in four of his prior six outings for the Atlanta Braves.
However, these righties are facing the second (Atlanta) and fifth- (New York) ranked teams in home runs this month, with temperatures expected in the 90s for what is Ballpark Pal's second-highest upgraded stadium for dingers today.
Hitters to target - Mets
- Pete Alonso, RH (+350) - Has a team-leading five HR vs. righties in August, as well as a 40% fly-ball rate.
- DJ Stewart, LH (+600) - Hitting just .286 with a 34.6% FB rate vs. RHP in August, has homered in three of his last five games.
- Jeff McNeil, LH (+870) - Hitting ..297 with three HR against righties this month, also is hitting .450 overall in his last six games.
- Brandon Nimmo, LH (+680) - Has a 36.1% FB rate, with a .349 average, against right-handed pitchers this month.
- Francisco Lindor, SH (+420) - Hitting .327 off righties (with a 41.9% FB rate) over the last three weeks, hitting 9-for-19 in the last four overall.
Hitters to target - Braves
- Austin Riley, RH (+390) - Has a 43.5% fly-ball rate, with five HR and a .304 average, against righties this month.
- Ronald Acuna Jr., RH (+400) - Hitting .338 with four dingers off righties in August.
- Matt Olson, LH (+300) - MLB HR co-leader has three HR and a 43.9% FB rate off righties this month.
- Eddie Rosario, LH (+480) - Homers in two of last four games, also hitting .353 with a 39% FB rate off righties in August.
- Marcell Ozuna, RH (+400) - Hitting .305 with a 34.9% fly-ball rate this month, also homered twice yesterday.
Best betting value: Austin Riley (+390)
Miami Marlins at San Diego Padres (Petco Park, 9:40 p.m. ET)
Pitchers
| Pitcher | HR/9 | HR/FB% | FB% | Barrel% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jesus Luzardo (LHP) |
1.38 | 14.0 | 40.7 | 11.0 |
 Blake Snell (LHP) |
0.93 | 14.0 | 32.2 | 8.0 |
Snell has been fantastic for the San Diego Padres for the last three months, but after going homer free in seven of eight starts, he's allowed a round-tripper in three straight outings.
Meanwhile, the wheels have absolutely fallen off for the Miami Marlins southpaw Luzardo, who has allowed a whopping eight home runs in his last 12 1/3 innings (three starts), and both teams are in the top half of the league in home runs in August.
Hitters to target - Marlins
- Jorge Soler, RH (+450) - Tied for sixth in MLB with seven HR in August, also has a three HR and a 64.7% FB rate in 23 ABs vs. LHP during that span.
- Josh Bell, SH (+560) - Also has seven HR this month, with homers in two of his last three games, while hitting .417 with a 42.1% FB rate off southpaws in August.
- Jake Burger, RH (+470) - Hitting .294 with a 50% fly-ball rate off lefties this month, and has a .373 overall average in August.
- Nick Fortes, RH (OTB) - Has a 75% FB vs. lefties in August, hitting .368 vs. LHP on the season. Currently OTB, but as high as 13/1 at other books.
Hitters to target - Padres
- Ha-Seong Kim, RH (+600) - Has homered in two straight games, while hitting .500 with 2 HR in 12 ABs and a 58.3% FB rate off lefties in August.
- Manny Machado, RH (+420) - Hitting .500 off lefties in August, with three HR in his last three games.
- Gary Sanchez, RH (+520) - Has a 60% FB rate and .250 average off LHP this month.
- Xander Bogaerts, RH (+560) - Hitting .400 with a 55.6% FB rate against southpaws over the last three weeks.
- Fernando Tatis Jr., RH (+290) - Slumping in August, but does have a 71.4% FB rate against lefties this month.
- Juan Soto, LH (+430) - Hitting .429 against lefties in August with one home run.
Best betting value: Gary Sanchez (+520)
Last week's recap:
- CLE at CIN: Zero HR
- ARI at COL: Two HR
- Game with most HR: SEA/KC (Five HR)
Not intended for use in MA.
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