Guardians vs White Sox Picks and Predictions: Giolito Throws a Gem

Two AL Central teams will look to make a second-half push for the division lead when the Chicago White Sox host the Cleveland Guardians for a four-game set tonight at Guaranteed Rate Field. 

Lucas Giolito will get the ball for the Pale Hose, who have underperformed through 92 games with a 46-46 record but still come into this contest as -150 home favorites.

Can either of these teams stack some wins and catch the Twins, who are two games up on the Guardians for the division lead? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Guardians vs. White Sox on Friday, July 22. 

Guardians vs White Sox odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The White Sox opened as -165 home favorites but have fallen to -150 as of 1:30 pm ET. The total has also jumped from 8.0 to 8.5. Giolito was a -117 road favorite on July 13 in Cleveland (O/U 8) and -190 at home versus Cal Quantrill on May 10.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Guardians vs White Sox predictions

• Prediction: White Sox ML (-150)
• Prediction: Under 8.5 (-114)
• Best bet: Quantrill Under 17.5 total outs (+115)

Picks made on 7/22/2022 at 1:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Guardians vs White Sox game info

• Location: Guaranteed Rate Field, Chicago, IL
• Date: Friday, July 22, 2022
• First pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports, NBCS-CHI

Guardians vs White Sox betting preview

Starting pitchers

Cal Quantrill (6-5, 3.75 ERA): Quantrill headed into the All-Star break on the heels of his first scoreless outing of the season, where he retired 15 of his last 18 batters. His 3.75 ERA might be a little misleading (4.52 xERA) as his K/BB is very low, and he can give up the long ball. He doesn’t miss many bats (Bottom 7% in Whiff%) but does get plenty of swings outside the zone and gets softer contact than league average. The Guardians are 8-9 straight up over his 17 games. Quantrill has given up eight runs to the White Sox over two meetings this season.

Lucas Giolito (6-5, 4.69 ERA): Giolito is riding a rough season but did manage to collect three quality starts in four outings before the All-Star break. However, looking back at his last nine starts, he’s allowed four or more runs six times. The former first-round pick is a fringe Top-50 starter in baseball this season, but Chicago has won just six of his 16 starts this season. The good news is that Giolito has seen the Guardians twice this season and has held them to just one earned run over 13-plus innings. 

Weather

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Key injuries

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Betting trend to know

The Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings. Find more MLB betting trends for Guardians vs. White Sox

Guardians vs White Sox picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

Although a pair of first-round starters will toe the rubber tonight, bettors and books are not expecting a duel between Lucas Giolito and Cal Quantrill. THE BAT has Quantrill ranked as the 186th starting pitcher in baseball, and his sub-4.00 ERA is quite misleading for the pitch-to-contact pitcher. Giolito comes in at No. 62. 

These two pitchers met back in May in Chicago with Giolito closing as a -190 moneyline favorite. That’s quite the difference from tonight’s -150 price tag. Giolito has been a tough pitcher to back but his recent success vs. this same Guardians lineup and his form has us liking the home side tonight.

Before the break hit, Giolito had recorded three quality starts in four turns, including one against the Giants’ Top 5 offense and another vs. Cleveland. The Chicago right-hander went six-plus innings vs. the Guardians last week and allowed one unearned run on five hits. He also held Cleveland to one run on six hits over seven innings in a May meeting where the Sox closed as -190 favorites against Quantrill.

Lucas Giolito is 5-1 in his last 10 starts vs. the Guardians, allowing just two runs or less in each. pic.twitter.com/e0Bn12MyNf

— Chicago White Sox (@whitesox) July 14, 2022

The Cleveland starter threw a scoreless outing before the break, but that was against the Tigers, who have the league’s worst offense by a fair margin. In his two games against the White Sox this season, Quantrill has surrendered eight runs on 17 hits over 12 1-3 innings. 

We don’t quite understand the steam on the Guardians after Chicago opened at -165, as Quantrill’s xERA and xFIP are good indicators that regression is coming for the righty. The Chicago lineup could also get a boost with the possible addition of catcher Yasmani Grandal, who has played in six rehab games in Triple-A and could be re-inserted into the middle of this Sox lineup. He is one of the best on-base batters in baseball and could fill the void in Luis Robert's absence. 

The last time these two starters met, Chicago was a -190 home favorite, and we aren’t looking at many differences tonight. Both bullpens are rested and healthy from the break, and Giolito comes in with a much better track record in the head-to-head meetings. 

The Sox are the only .500 team with a losing record at home, which is a number that should get improved upon over the final 60 or so games as they had one of the league’s best home records a season ago at 53-28.

Prediction: White Sox moneyline (-150 at bet365)

Over/Under analysis

I’m fading the market movement on the side and doing the same with the total. Over the nine meetings between the two teams this season, the total has closed above 8 just twice — a Lance Lynn and a Konnor Pilkington start. The last time we saw a Giolioto-Quantrill matchup was in May when the total was at 8.0 by the first pitch.

Giolito has struggled mightily, but the Guardians’ middle-of-the-pack offense has proved no issues for him over 13 innings this season. The Guardians have some of the worst power numbers in baseball, and only the awful Tigers have hit fewer home runs.

The Guardians need to string a bunch of hits together to score, and with the All-Star break likely affecting their timing and Giolito being a great H/9 pitcher over his career, Cleveland could struggle to plate runs today.

Quantrill is not the best pitcher to trust with an Under as his underlying stats point to a regression to a higher ERA, but this White Sox offense has had its issues this year and scores runs at a league-average rate. Like the Guardians, Chicago is reliant on stringing hits together to score runs as the Sox sit 24th in the league in home runs hit at less than one per game (0.90).

Looking at the later innings, both bullpens have had a good rest, thanks to the time off. Cleveland has one of the best closers in Emmanuel Case, who earned the save in the All-Star game. Both bullpens have a sub-4.00 ERA and rank in the top half of baseball in WAR.

Neither offense is impressive, and we could also see some timing issues at the plate coming off the Midsummer Classic. I’m happy to play the Under here in a game that books proved should be at 8.0 from earlier meetings.  

Prediction: Under 8.5 (-114 at FanDuel)

Best bet

The books expect Quantrill to get through six innings tonight, and we aren’t seeing it that way. His Under 17.5 outs is paying +115, implying roughly 18.20 outs, whereas THE BAT has him projected for 17.08 outs.

The Cleveland right-hander has failed to get 16 outs in three of his last six starts, and although he did make it to 18 outs in his two meetings versus the White Sox, Chicago hit him hard. Guaranteed Rate Field is also a hot and humid place that should give an edge to the Chicago hitters. 

Quantrill’s velocity is also down 1.2 mph from last season. His xERA and xFIP are substantially higher than his actual ERA and FIP, meaning some rougher outings could be on the horizon.

With a rested bullpen and division lead to chase down, if the Cleveland starter gets in trouble, his leash could be shorter. Given Quantrill's control issues (30 walks in 100 innings), Chicago could certainly drive up the pitch count and give this Under a better chance of hitting. 

Pick: Quantrill Under 17.5 total outs (+115 at DraftKings)

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