The American League Central looks like it’s going to be a wild ride all season long with four teams in the mix for postseason spots.
Right now, it’s the Detroit Tigers leading the way at 33-17 as they open a big four-game set against the Cleveland Guardians, who are 26-22.
And my Guardians vs. Tigers predictions like these division rivals to light up the scoreboard early in Game 1.
Here are my MLB picks for this AL Central showdown with first pitch set to go at Comerica Park in Detroit at 6:40 pm ET on Thursday, May 22.
Guardians vs Tigers prediction
My Guardians vs Tigers best bet: Over 4.0 — first five innings (-120 at bet365)
The Detroit Tigers' ascension in the American League has been one of the better stories in baseball this season.
Tarik Skubal is out to defend his Cy Young crown. Riley Greene and more importantly, Spencer Torkelson are raking. Javy Baez has resurrected his career. And the bullpen is dominant. struggle
Unfortunately, starter Jack Flaherty hasn’t really been a part of the team’s success. The 29-year-old right-hander doesn’t have the same life on his fastball this season, and as a result, he’s getting hit more.
Flaherty enters this game with a 4.63 expected ERA and while surrendering a .236 expected batting average to opponents. Both rank in the 33rd percentile or lower among MLB pitchers.
Now, the Cleveland Guardians aren’t exactly heavy hitters at the plate, but they’ve been a little better this month, ranking 20th in OPS and 17th in wRC+ in May.
The Guardians counter Flaherty with an inconsistent right-hander of their own in Tanner Bibee.
The 26-year-old is coming off a tough start against the Cincinnati Reds, where he surrendered five runs (four earned) on 10 hits over six innings. He enters this game with a 4.13 xERA and a .247 xBA. Those rank in the 40th and 53rd percentiles, respectively.
The bigger problem for Bibee is that this Tigers lineup has crushed him. Current Detroit batters have combined for a .316 xBA and a .543 xSLG vs. Bibee over 116 plate appearances.
Now, the Tigers have one of the best bullpens in baseball, so if Flaherty gets in trouble, they’ll have no problem taking the ball from him. That’s why I like the scoring to come early and off the starting pitching in this one.
That’s why I prefer the Over 4.0 in the first five innings here. The wild AL Central gets off to a fun start in this four-game set.
Guardians vs Tigers same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 4.0 — first five innings
Zach McKinstry 2+ H/R/R
Steven Kwan 2+ H/R/R
One of the Tigers who has done the most damage against Tanner Bibee is Zach McKinstry. The Tigers' super-utility man is hitting .323 with an .860 OPS over his last nine games. He is also 6-for-16 in his career vs. Bibee with two doubles and a dinger. That’s good for a .361 xBA and a .642 xSLG.
He’s gone Over 1.5 hits, runs, and RBIs five times in his last nine games, I like him to make it six of 10 tonight.
For Cleveland, let’s take Steven Kwan to do the same thing and go Over 1.5 hits, runs, and RBIs. Kwan has always been known for his bat-to-ball skills and is hitting .317 this season. He is 3-for-9 in his career vs. Jack Flaherty with a .354 xBA.
Kwan has gone for 2+ hits, runs and RBIs in 10 of his last 17 games overall.
Guardians vs Tigers odds
Guardians vs Tigers live odds
Guardians vs Tigers opening odds
- Moneyline: Cleveland +120 | Detroit -140
- Run line: Cleveland +1.5 (-160) | Detroit -1.5 (+135)
- Over/Under: Over 8.0 | Under 8.0
Guardians vs Tigers trend
The Tigers have hit the Team Total Over in 34 of their last 50 games for +16.00 Units and a 27% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Guardians vs. Tigers.
How to watch Guardians vs Tigers and game info
| Location | Comerica Park, Detroit, MI |
| Date | Thursday, 5-22-2025 |
| First pitch | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | CLEG, FanDuel Sports Network Detroit |
| Guardians starting pitcher | Tanner Bibee (3-4, 4.06 ERA) |
| Tigers starting pitcher | Jack Flaherty (2-5, 4.44 ERA) |
Guardians vs Tigers latest injuries
Guardians vs Tigers weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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