Guardians vs Mariners Predictions, Picks, Odds: Fade Gilbert's Strikeout Total

While Logan Gilbert is one of the best young pitchers in all of baseball, the right-hander saw his whiff and strikeout rate plummet in 2022. Find out more about tonight's matchup by reading our Guardians vs. Mariners betting picks.

Last Updated: Apr 1, 2023 1:20 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Logan Gilbert Seattle Mariners MLB
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The Cleveland Guardians and Seattle Mariners will play the third of a four-game set tonight at T-Mobile Park, with Logan Gilbert starting for the home side as -135 favorites.

Seattle only got 10 outs from Robbie Ray last night but didn’t burn the bullpen as swing-man Chris Flexen ate most of the innings. With a sizeable advantage in starting pitching, are the M's the right side to back tonight?

Find out where my best bets lie in our free MLB picks and predictions for Guardians vs. Mariners on April 1. 

Guardians vs Mariners odds

Guardians vs Mariners predictions

There are a lot of good things to say about Logan Gilbert, but he surprisingly finished with a K/9 last season of 8.43 and a 22.7 K% that THE BAT projects to be even lower this season. I like the Mariners in this matchup, but Gilbert isn’t as heavy a strikeout pitcher as many believe, finishing among the bottom 12% of pitchers last year in whiff rate.

That means we’re getting some value on Under 4.5 punchouts at plus money, and I'd strictly play this at +105 or higher. THE BAT is projecting 90 pitches, 17.3 outs, and 4.64 strikeouts. The market is already moving to the Under, so we’re on the right side of the line.

The Guardians put the ball in play a ton and finished with the lowest K% a season ago. Gilbert will need plenty to go right to get to 90 pitches after a heavy 185-inning workload last season.

When in doubt, bet against strikeouts vs. the Guardians. 

My best betLogan Gilbert Under 4.5 strikeouts (+105)

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Guardians vs Mariners moneyline analysis

The Guardians’ offense woke up after getting shutout in the opener, scored nine runs in Friday night's 9-4 victory. A lot of that was thanks to the poor performance of Robbie Ray, who allowed a ton of traffic and was responsible for five of those runs.

The Cleveland production also came on the backs of multiple Seattle errors that resulted in five unearned runs. Ray is also an easier pitcher to steal off of and the Guardians swiped four total bases last night.

However, it won’t be as easy this time around when facing Gilbert, as the right-hander sits in the high-90s with great command. The Guardians have plenty of talent in the lineup, but this is a team that finds success by getting on base and being creative on the base paths. With Gilbert keeping the bases relatively clear with a 1.18 WHIP last season, it will be harder tonight for the visitors to plate runs. 

The Seattle offense is hitting just .219 through two games, but Aaron Civale tends to get in trouble with the home run ball. The Seattle lineup offers a lot of power — starting with leadoff man Julio Rodriguez — all the way down to their No. 6 hitter Eugenio Suarez. 

With the Mariners not burning many arms in the loss yesterday and having all their best bullpen relievers today, a late lead can be trusted with Seattle.

Guardians vs Mariners Over/Under analysis

Today’s total opened at 7.5 and has been bet down to 7.0. Bettors aren’t being fooled by last night’s 13-run game, but this evening's O/U remains low enough to hit the Over.

The starting pitching matchup could certainly yield five runs. THE BAT projects for Civale and Gilbert to give up a combined 4.78 earned runs and neither to record 18 outs. That leaves some work for the bullpens, whom both teams are already familiar with.

Civale is a No. 4 pitcher who the Mariners can exploit, and although I like Gilbert, the Guardians are as creative on the bases as any team and possess a ton of speed.

I lean to the Over in this one.

Guardians vs Mariners game info

Location: T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA
Date: Saturday, April 1, 2023
First pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
TV: Bally Great Lakes, Root Sports

Guardians vs Mariners betting preview

Starting pitchers

Aaron Civale (0-0, 0.00 ERA): Civale is a tough pitcher to handicap as he had a 4.92 ERA a season ago, despite an xERA of 3.80. He had a decent spring with a 3.77 ERA and a 16/3 K/BB ratio over 14.1 innings pitched. THE BAT projects Civale for nearly 16 outs and 5.06 strikeouts tonight with a good framing catcher in Mike Zunino and a pitcher-friendly umpire in Tripp Gibson at his disposal. 

Logan Gilbert (0-0, 0.00 ERA): The 25-year-old Gilbert will be entering his third season in the majors and is coming off a 2022 campaign where he posted a 3.28 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP. The right-hander did wear down late last year and saw his ERA climb by half a run, but he looked fantastic in Spring Training, recording 18 strikeouts through 16 2/3 innings while walking only two. 

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Trend to know

The Over is 5-0 in Gilbert's last five starts when the opponent is coming off scoring five runs or more in their previous game. Find more MLB betting trends for Guardians vs. Mariners


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