Giants vs Padres Picks and Predictions: Giants Give Musgrove No Slack

San Diego is losing ground in the Wild Card race, and now must go up against the MLB's best record in order to keep their postseason dreams alive. Check out our Giants vs Padres picks to see if they can get the job done Tuesday night.

Last Updated: Sep 21, 2021 10:36 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
Kevin Gausman San Francisco Giants MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

On Tuesday, September 21, the San Diego Padres host the San Francisco Giants at Petco Park in San Diego, California at 10:10 p.m. ET. The Padres have lost three in a row and are running out of time to make a playoff push, so this is a very important series. 

Will San Diego help keep its season alive by winning this game? Keep reading our Braves vs. Padres picks and predictions. 

Giants vs Padres game info

Location: Petco Park, San Diego, CA
Date: Tuesday, September 21, 2021
Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
TV: Bally Sports San Diego, NBCS BA

Giants vs Padres odds

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Giants vs Padres betting preview

Starting pitchers

Kevin Gausman (14-6, 2.78 ERA): Gausman struggled in his most recent start, allowing four runs on eight hits in five innings of work. He did help the Giants win a game by coming through as a pinch hitter in extra innings on Friday, so it’s not all bad for the 30-year-old. Gausman will, however, need to figure it out on the mound, as he has a 4.70 ERA in the month of September.  

Joe Musgrove (11-9, 2.99 ERA): Musgrove is coming off a win over this Giants team, with the righty giving up three runs over six innings in a 9-6 win on September 15. It was Musgrove’s second quality start in a row, but that somehow feels like a disappointing performance for the righty. The 28-year-old is more than capable of going out and dominating, which is what the Padres will be looking for in a must-win game like this one. 

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Giants: Jake McGee RP (out), Alex Dickerson OF (out)
Padres: Drew Pomeranz RP (out)
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Giants are 35-17 in their last 52 games when coming off a loss. Find more MLB betting trends for Giants vs. Padres.

Moneyline pick

Over the last two seasons, the Giants are 14-4 when facing teams that are batting .200 or worse over a three-game span, suggesting that they haven’t exactly had trouble putting away slumping clubs. Meanwhile, San Francisco is also 7-1 with Gausman on the mound in divisional road games this season. On top of that, San Diego has struggled when coming off extended road trips this year, with the team going 2-10 after having played at least seven road games in a row. 

The trends being in San Francisco’s favor in this game is one thing, but what makes the Giants the better value in this game is the fact that Musgrove has really struggled against this lineup all year. The 28-year-old has looked downright dominant on quite a few occasions this season, as he has turned in a no-hitter and just recently pitched another complete-game shutout against the Los Angeles Angels on August 27. However, in three starts against the Giants this season, Musgrove is 1-2 with a 6.75 ERA. A lot of that has to do with his own inability to get himself in a groove on the hill, but it also boils down to the fact that San Francisco absolutely rakes against right-handed pitching. 

The Giants are third in the league in homers off righties this year, and they’re also Top 5 in both slugging percentage and OPS. None of that has been luck either, with San Francisco also being seventh in BABIP — meaning that the team makes great contact when getting the opportunity to face righties. 

As for Gausman, the righty hasn’t been perfect as of late, but he’s still giving the Giants some great opportunities to pick up wins. San Francisco has won in six of his last nine trips to the mound, and he’s more than capable of giving the Giants another quality start in this one. Gausman gave up four runs over five innings against the Padres in San Francisco last Thursday, but he has been much better on the road this season. In 17 starts away from home, Gausman is 8-2 with a 2.11 ERA. 

PREDICTION: Giants ML (+100)

Over/Under pick

This matchup features a nice starting pitching matchup, but that doesn’t exactly mean it’s going to be a low-scoring game. Whenever a righty is on the mound against the Giants, a big performance from the offense is always in play. The last time Musgrove faced San Francisco, 15 runs were scored in San Diego’s victory. 

Meanwhile, when Gausman pitched against this Padres team on September 16, the teams combined to score 11 runs. Overall, both of these guys have had great seasons, but they’re stumbling a bit heading into this meeting. The Over is also 6-2 in San Francisco’s last eight games. 

PREDICTION: Over 7.5 (-105) 

Giants vs Padres betting card

  • Giants ML (+100)
  • Over 7.5 (-105) 

Picks made on 9/21/2021 at 9:45 a.m. ET

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