Giants vs Mets Predictions, Picks, Odds: Back Bailey's Bat Sunday Night

The New York Mets and San Francisco Giants will wrap up a three-game series on Sunday Night Baseball. 

The teams have split the first two games of this series, with Justin Verlander leading New York to a win last night following a San Francisco win the day before.

It's been a significantly disappointing season for the Mets, entering tonight nine games under .500 and well behind the NL East-leading Braves.

Things are different for the Giants; they are just 3.5 games behind first in the NL West and will be angling for a playoff berth down the stretch. 

Read on for my best bet and full MLB picks and predictions for Mets vs. Giants on Sunday, July 2nd.

Giants vs Mets odds

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Giants vs Mets predictions

Tonight we have two pitchers on the mound — each with underwhelming metrics — in David Peterson and Ross Stripling.

With that in mind, I'm naturally attracted to the Over as I'm expecting runs. We'll talk about that soon, but the board has more value, with my best bet leaning on Patrick Bailey. 

Bailey has been a revelation for the San Francisco Giants, especially of late. Two days ago, he became the second catcher to accomplish a rare combo of feats: hitting a game-tying home run in the eighth inning or later and throwing out a potential tying run on a stolen base attempt in the eighth inning or later.

To put it plainly, the first-year major leaguer has been hot. He's gone over this total bases number in six of his last 10 games and exactly half of his previous 30 games. Either way, you slice those numbers, there's value in this from a raw stat perspective with an implied number of -150 if we're looking at the last ten games and +100 in the previous 30.

I'm especially intrigued with this play because of the damage that he's done against lefties, like the one he'll be facing tonight.

It may surprise some, but Patrick Bailey has one of the best ISO numbers against left-handed pitchers of any player in baseball. He's ranked eighth in this category among players with at least 40 plate appearances against lefties with a number of .379. To put it plainly, that number suggests that he'll hit for extra bases around 37% of the time.

With that in mind, we're hoping to see plate appearances against Peterson as many times as possible. My projections suggest that Bailey should be expected to see him close to three times which tilts the odds significantly in our favor. 

Yet another thing that screams value in this play is the pitches that Bailey has success against. Peterson will throw a high mix of fastball-slider, with the two pitches making up just over 50% of his pitch arsenal.

This is good news for Bailey; out of all the pitches he's seen this season, the slider and fastball are the two highest hard-hit rates among them. Over the 40+ times he's seen it, Bailey is hitting .300 against the fastball and .289 against the slider. 

Backing Bailey tonight is backing value. He went 0-4 at the plate last night, which, if trends hold steady, he should bounce back with a good night here. While the data is still relatively small, Bailey has had back-to-back hitless games just once this season.

I projected this number at -130, and given the matchup he'll have, it's one of the best bets on the board under the lights of Sunday Night Baseball. 

My best bet: Patrick Bailey Over 1.5 total bases (+155)

Giants vs Mets same-game parlay

Patrick Bailey Over 1.5 total bases (+155)

Francisco Lindor to hit a home run (+390)

Giants ML (+105)

+2,200 at bet365

We're going for significant cash tonight with many possible outcomes. Of course, you know how I feel about Bailey's matchup tonight, and he'll anchor this same-game parlay for us. The second leg is Lindor to go yard, and we love his matchup tonight. 

We've yet to mention Ross Stripling, who will take the mound tonight for the Giants, but the similarities between him and his opponent are uncanny. Each of them is ground-ball reliant, and each of them has barrel issues.

Stripling's barrel rate problems are a little more exuberant, however. He ranks in the Bottom 7% of baseball in barrel rate and Lindor can attack this. Although his power is overshadowed by Pete Alonso's, you know what we can do with the bat.

We like this matchup because he's one of the more balanced hitters in the lineup against the two primary pitches he'll see: the slider and fastball. Lindor has a hard-hit rate exceeding 45% against both — the only Met in tonight's lineup that can say that.

We rounded this one off with Giants moneyline. My projections see this as close to a coin-flip game, and San Francisco gives us the best bang for our buck. With so many similarities between the two pitchers, this game will likely be decided on which team can put the ball in the air more and avoid being induced into the ground ball.

By any metric, San Francisco has been the much better team at doing that this season, an issue that's at the heart of New York's struggles.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Giants vs Mets moneyline and Over/Under analysis

Although I won't play it solo, I'm leaning toward Giants moneyline tonight. Their matchup is simply a better one, as I noted above.

San Fran is also just playing significantly better than the Mets right now. The Mets arrived at this series as losers of two of their last three. The Giants weren't exactly hot either, but they were significantly more competitive in their games and didn't have the increasingly heavier weight of underperforming with baseball's highest payroll. 

The trends are favorable for us as well, as the Giants are 5-2 in their last seven meetings and have won five straight against left-handed starters. 

I don't have a strong feel for the total tonight. I expect runs, but neither of these teams is sensational at avoiding the ground ball (although one is better than the other), and with that in mind, you can imagine a scenario in which these two starters do just enough to keep this Under.

I projected this number at 9.5. There's a slight edge to the Over there, but it's not enough of one to play it off projections alone. I also don't have enough conviction in my handicap to see this going Over at that number, so this is a strong stay-away. 

The trends indeed point in a direction. The Under is 5-2 in the last seven games between these two teams in New York. Additionally, the Under is a perfect combined 8-0 over the previous eight combined games from these two teams. 

Trend to know

Patrick Bailey has gone Over 1.5 total bases in six of his last ten games. Find more MLB betting trends for Giants vs. Mets

Giants vs Mets game info

Starting pitchers

Ross Stripling (0-2, 6.88 ERA): A 1.56 WHIP tells a rough story here. Stripling is an off-speed favored pitcher, with the slider and changeup making up nearly 50% of his arsenal. Opponents hitting about .300 against breaking pitches is likely an indicator of the root of his issues. With that in mind, he just completed his best start of the season against his former team. He went another short stint of just three innings but allowed zero runs in that one. Stripling has been used as a set-up man for platoon games rather than a standard starter. 

David Peterson (2-6, 7.00 ERA): At his best, Peterson is getting ground balls rapidly, like his career rate of nearly 50%. At his worst, though, Peterson is giving up hard-hit balls at a high clip and occasionally throwing the long ball in there. We've seen more of the latter lately. He made just one start in June, and it was great, allowed zero runs to the Brewers in seven innings. Before that, though, May saw him post an ERA over 10 in just two starts. 

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