Are the Dodgers just slumping, or is there a bigger underlying problem?
The Boys in Blue have dropped 10 of their last 15 games and are a game away from getting swept at their home stadium by a bitter rival.
The Giants put an absolute pasting on the Dodgers with a 15-0 victory in Game 2. They send out their ace, Logan Webb, in hopes of completing the three-game road sweep.
How will the Dodgers respond after their worst home shutout loss since 1898? I’ve got an eye on the MLB odds today and like a play on the moneyline.
Read on for my best bet and full MLB picks and predictions for the Giants vs. Dodgers on Sunday, June 18.
Giants vs Dodgers odds
Giants vs Dodgers predictions
The Giants send ace Logan Webb to the mound Sunday afternoon as they go for the jugular.
Visiting Dodger Stadium is no easy task, but Webb has weathered the storm before and walked away undamaged. Across five road starts against his rivals, Webb has a 2.42 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 26 IP.
His strikeout rate of 25.2% is a new career high and he’s doing a fantastic job of limiting free passes with a microscopic 4.7% BB-rate.
He faces an L.A. lineup that has been slumping at the plate relative to its usual performance, checking in slightly below league average with a 95 wRC+ (19th in MLB) against right-handed pitching in the last 10 days. They’re missing left-handed power bat Max Muncy, who is on the IL, and have some knick-knacks with both Chris Taylor and Davis Peralta questionable for Sunday’s series finale.
The Dodgers’ reputation may be preceding them a bit too much here as the favorite. They have a lineup in worse form and will be at a slight starting pitching disadvantage.
In the last 10 days, the Giants have posted a 120 wRC+ (eighth) against righties. They face Tony Gonsolin, a Dodgers’ starter whose pristine 1.93 ERA is not supported by the underlying numbers.
His 4.14 xERA and 4.25 FIP are both two full runs above his actual ERA. He isn’t making batters miss, posting a career-worst 18.9% K-rate and 9.4% swinging strike rate. For comparison, he’s averaged a 23.9% K-rate and 12.1% swinging strike rate in his career. His fastball is down to 92.5 mph on average — well down from its peak at 95.1 mph in 2020 and below his 93.6 mph career average.
FanGraphs’ Pitching+ metric, which measures a pitcher’s “stuff” and their location, isn’t a fan, either. His 99 Stuff+ and 97 Location+ are both slightly below average, and his overall 100 Pitching+ is above only Noah Syndergaard (7.16 ERA, 99 Pitching+) among Dodgers starters that have thrown more than 10 innings this season.
It’s no secret that the Boys in Blue have a bullpen problem. Their 5.11 ERA in relief is better than only the embarrassment that is the Oakland Athletics, and the pen will be heavily taxed after Game 1 went to extra innings and Game 2 was a pasting. They’ve already allowed 14 earned runs in the first two games of this series.
I’m backing the Giants on the moneyline to complete the sweep.
My best bet: Giants moneyline (+116)
Giants vs Dodgers same-game parlay
Giants ML EVEN
Giants Team Total Over 4.5 +120
Michael Conforto 2+ Total Bases +145
We’ll start this SGP with our best bet from above — taking the Giants on the moneyline.
They’ve won six straight games overall and have been terrific on the road, where they’ve won 16 of their last 21 games.
To add some value, we have a few plus-money correlated plays. The first involves taking San Francisco’s team total Over 4.5 at +120 odds.
The wind will be blowing out to right-center field, which is great news for the Giants against Gonsolin, a right-handed pitcher whose numbers are just begging for regression. The Over is 4-0 in the Giants’ last four games against a right-handed starter, and they’ve been a Top-10 lineup lately against righties.
For the third and final leg, we’re targeting Giants outfielder Michael Conforto to get 2+ total bases at +145 odds. This is the odds-kicker that brings the SGP out to +400.
Conforto mashes right-handed pitching, posting a .795 OPS since 2021. He’s posting a strong 10.1% barrel rate this season and I like his odds of contributing to the Giants’ predicted victory on Sunday.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Giants vs Dodgers moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The home team is the slight favorite, ranging from -120 to -135 at current depending on the book. Be sure to shop around using our MLB odds tool to ensure that you get the best price available.
The Giants are one of the hottest teams in baseball, winning six straight and eight of their last 10 games. That’s a stark contrast to the Dodgers, who are playing their worst baseball of the season with only five wins to show for their last 15 games overall.
San Francisco has been great on the road, winning eight straight away games. The Giants have the best record in the National League since April 22 and have moved to just a half-game back of LA for second place in the NL West. They can pass up their rivals with a win in Game 3.
The total opened at 8.5 but has moved to a flat 8 at some books after taking some early money to the Under.
These teams have tended to get into high-scoring affairs, as they’ve combined to go 5-0-1 O/U in the last six meetings in Los Angeles. That includes a 2-0 mark to the Over in the first two games of this series.
The Dodgers are 18-7-3 O/U in their last 28 games overall, while the Giants have cashed four straight Overs and are 10-2 O/U in their last 12 during Game 3 of a series.
The current weather forecast calls for sunny skies, temperatures of 72-74 degrees, and winds of 8.1 to 9.2 mph blowing out to right-center.
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Trend to know
The Giants are 8-0 in their last eight road games. Find more MLB betting trends for Giants vs. Dodgers
Giants vs Dodgers game info
| Location: | Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Sunday, June 18, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 4:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MLB Network |
Starting pitchers
Logan Webb (5-6, 3.15 ERA): Webb’s 3.70 xERA and 3.61 FIP are both about a half-run higher than his actual ERA. He’s hit a bit of a rough stretch, surrendering 10 earned runs across his last three outings. Before that, he had a stellar run in which he allowed just nine earned across seven starts. His 25.2% K-rate is the second-highest of his career while his 4.7% BB-rate is the lowest we’ve ever seen from the right-hander.
Tony Gonsolin (4-1, 1.93 ERA): Gonsolin has been very effective for a Dodgers team suffering from numerous starting pitcher injuries. He’s been a steadying force, allowing no more than three earned runs in any of his nine starts. While his ERA is superb, both his 4.14 xERA and 4.25 FIP demand immediate regression. His 18.9% K-rate is the lowest of his career while his 9.5% BB-rate is the second-highest.
