Giants vs Angels Predictions, Picks, Odds: Ohtani Could Be Limited on the Mound

The Los Angeles Angels took the 7-5 win last night over the San Francisco Giants as a slight -105 home dog but, more importantly, snapped a seven-game losing streak in doing so. Now they’ll send Shohei Ohtani to the mound to counter Ryan Walker as a -130 home favorite. 

With Ohtani dealing with cramps and a heavy workload in general, is hitting his Under strikeout prop early going to leave proactive bettors with some closing line value come first pitch?

Find out where my best bets lie in our MLB picks and predictions for Giants vs. Angels on Wednesday, August 9.

Giants vs Angels odds

Giants vs Angels predictions

Shohei Ohtani left his last start with cramping in his pitching hand and finger and although he was deemed fit to pitch on his regular rest, it’s tough to assume he gets his regular long leash on the mound tonight. 

This is a pitcher who has totaled 125 innings with very little rest day-to-day as he's compiled over 500 plate appearances. He’s topped 95 pitches just once over his last five starts and could be feeling the grind.

"It's not just my finger," Ohtani said through his translator regarding his cramping in his last start. "I've been kind of getting cramps all over the place."

And his skipper — the person in charge of how many innings he’s pitching — is aware of his physical status. 

"There's some pain when he swings, but he feels like it's something that he's gonna have to live with for now to get back on the field," LA manager Phil Nevin told the media this week. "And it'll eventually get better ... but we're getting close."

Ohtani does have a great matchup vs. the worst offense in baseball over the last 30 days, but the Giants do have a high 10% walk rate and although they can’t hit for average or power, they could dig into Ohtani’s shorter pitch count.

I still like the edge LA has in starting pitching and am happy to take the Angels on the F5 ML at -140, but Ohtani could see more quality than quantity tonight, making his Under 7.5 strikeouts a tough number to hit if he only grabs 15 outs. 

Many books have already moved to 6.5 but the Under 7.5 at -136 at FanDuel is the best bet here. There's a reason the starter has no other markets and that has to do with his leash which could be shorter than usual tonight.

My best bet: Shohei Ohtani Under 7.5 strikeouts (-136 at FanDuel)

Giants vs Angels same-game parlay

Angels F5 -0.5 (-120)

Luis Rengifo Over 1.5 total bases (+165)

Shohei Ohtani Under 6.5 strikeouts (+105)

+1,000 at bet365

bet365 has no other pitcher props open for this game at the time of writing, which solidifies the questions regarding Ohtani's leash today. His Under 6.5 Ks is +105, which is not a number I'd play by itself as +110 is the threshold. But regardless, even seven punchouts are a lot for a guy who could be restricted or not have his best movement with his finger issues. The Under gives a great multiplier with the first-five moneyline.

Despite the Ohtani concerns, he is good enough to carve up this bad San Francisco offense even when operating at less than 100% as bettors have moved both the F5 ML and full-game ML 20 points in favor of the Angels since opening.

Luis Rengifo is not a guy I often target for Overs but he is hitting leadoff and could see five plate appearances today with the bullpen day for the visitors. He has 15 hits over his last 11 games, including six multi-hit outings, six doubles, and two home runs. He has a .921 OPS over the last 12 games when he's been at the top of the order. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Giants vs Angels moneyline and Over/Under analysis

To me, this is a perfect game to get the Angels on the F5 ML.

Ohtani’s leash has some concerns considering he was pulled in his last start with cramping in his right hand and fingers. I can’t guarantee a full slate of pitches for the starter and the books are pricing this in as the F5 ML is -140 compared to -130 for the full game.

LA opened at -120 on the ML and hit as short as -140 as of this morning. They closed as slight -105 home dogs last night vs. another opener and early bettors who got on the LA ML at -120 picked up on the 15-20-point pricing error considering the matchup. 

The starting pitching edge LA has might be the biggest on the slate today as the Giants will be using an opener for the second straight day. The visitors got zero outs from their starter yesterday so middle relievers Jakob Junis and Alex Wood had to eat seven innings. 

That might sound like a bullpen advantage for the Halos, but LA has two relievers likely unavailable today, including Dominic Leone, who had the 28-pitch save last night after closer Carlos Estevez blew his second straight closing opportunity on Monday.

Outside of Junis and Wood, the Giants are healthy and solid in the pen and the later innings could belong to them.

I’m happy taking Ohtani vs. the worst offense in baseball over the last 30 days in the first five innings, even at -140. San Francisco ranks dead last in average, WAR, HRs, wOBA, and wRC+ over the last month and if Ohtani is on, he could carve through this order two times through unscathed. 

The hitting conditions are average at Angel Stadium, an otherwise decent hitting park, and Ohtani’s high strikeout game plays well vs. a San Fran offense that has a 26% strikeout rate over the last 30 days, which is a Bottom-7 mark. He might not pitch deep today, but should be able to get at least a strikeout per inning over 15 outs. Even a six-K game is well below his 7.5 strikeout line.  

Thanks to the unpredictability of the LA bullpen, I’m off the total. It opened at 7.5 across the board but that number is creeping up and bettors are starting to see some 8s pop up at more commercial books. The edge is in the starting pitching (at least the first five innings of it) and early bettors have already picked up on it.

Trend to know

The San Francisco Giants have only hit the Team Total Over in 12 of their last 37 games (-16.65 Units / -39% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Giants vs. Angels

Giants vs Angels game info

Starting pitchers

Ryan Walker (4-1, 2.52 ERA): Rookie Ryan Walker will be making his ninth start of the season but he has never thrown more than three innings. He will be used as another opener for the Giants after Scott Alexander failed to record an out yesterday. Walker carries a 41:11 K:BB through 39-plus innings. THE BAT projects 3.9 outs and 0.66 earned runs. 

Shohei Ohtani (9-5, 3.32 ERA): Ohtani will be making his 22nd start of the season but is coming off a 59-pitch performance thanks to cramping in his right hand and fingers. There was talk about him skipping a start but he apparently is ready to go. His pitch count is a bit of a question mark, however. He carries a 160:51 K:BB rate over 124-plus innings with 18 home runs allowed. The Angels are 13-8 SU when he starts and THE BAT is projecting 103 pitches, 18.5 outs, 7.90 strikeouts, and 2.38 earned runs.

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