The Boston Red Sox are on a roll, winning seven of their last eight. But with their best player now playing for their opponent on Friday, things may be set to take a turn for the worse.
My Red Sox vs. Giants predictions explain why Boston is in an arduous spot against an effective strikeout and fly-ball pitcher in a friendly park, and why his counterpart could be due for regression.
Let’s hand out some MLB picks for Friday, June 20.
Red Sox vs Giants prediction
My Red Sox vs Giants best bet: Giants moneyline (-126 at DraftKings)
Hunter Dobbins is off and running with a 2.25 ERA this month, a number which has been hard-earned in 16 2/3 innings as the bulk of them have come against the New York Yankees.
While the performance on the surface has looked promising, there are a few concerning trends for Dobbins as it pertains to this matchup.
The first is that he’s continued to roll up ground balls at a high rate, gaining in ground-ball rate with each month. His infield defense continues to be one of the worst in baseball, and the task at hand won’t become much easier against the San Francisco Giants.
The Giants own the seventh-best OPS in the league against ground-ball pitchers, an extreme split when you consider they’re just 27th against fly-ballers, and hitting inside a pitcher’s paradise like Oracle Park is only going to put the onus on Dobbins and the gloves behind him.
There’s also the fact that the righty has now allowed three homers this month — matching his season total entering June — and there could certainly be more damage coming with his .506 expected slugging coming in over 160 points higher than his actual results.
Dobbins is a strike-thrower who hasn’t managed to find many strikeouts, and that’s big news on account of San Francisco’s frequent struggles in this area. The Giants have made some strides in that area over the last two weeks, and have climbed back up the ranks in Isolated Power, so they look like an offense to believe in here.
On the flip side, I’m loving Hayden Birdsong in this spot.
The Boston Red Sox may own a solid numbers of their own against fly-ball pitchers like the rookie, but they’ve been heavily power-reliant with a stellar .198 ISO in the last two weeks. That’s a concern when you’re stepping into a park that kills power, particularly against a fly-ball pitcher who owns a tasty .326 xSLG as a starter.
Birdsong’s excellent 1.78 home ERA should be all the proof you need that Boston may be in for a tough day.
This is a team which has lost Rafael Devers in recent days, and will carry a rough 25.8% strikeout rate into this one. You simply can’t like their chances against a strong strikeout arm who’s held the ball in the park and navigated plenty of starts with relative ease.
Red Sox vs Giants same-game parlay (SGP)
Giants moneyline
Hayden Birdsong 7+ strikeouts
Jung Hoo Lee 2+ Hits + Runs + RBI
We touched on the strikeout factor above, but just to put it in perspective, Birdsong ranks near the Top 30% of the league in strikeout rate with a whiff rate near 30%, which is pushing towards the Top 20%. He’ll be able to feast on a Red Sox team striking out over a quarter of the time.
I’m also a fan of Jung-Hoo Lee here.
Yes, he’s been a bit cold of late, but he owns a delectable .340 average against ground-ball pitchers and with his solid prospects — coupled with a premium lineup spot — he should get an opportunity to come around and score at least one run and get on base plenty in what should be a great night for this offense.
Red Sox vs Giants odds
Red Sox vs Giants live odds
Red Sox vs Giants opening odds
- Moneyline: Boston +126 | San Francisco -148
- Run line: Boston +1.5 | San Francisco -1.5
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5
Red Sox vs Giants trend
The Giants have hit the F5 team total Under in 21 of their last 33 games at home (+8.20 Units / 21% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Giants.
How to watch Red Sox vs Giants and game info
| Location | Oracle Park, San Francisco, CA |
| Date | Friday, 6-20-2025 |
| First pitch | 10:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | NESN, NBCS-California |
| Red Sox starting pitcher | Hunter Dobbins (4-1, 3.74 ERA) |
| Giants starting pitcher | Hayden Birdsong (3-1, 2.79 ERA) |
Red Sox vs Giants latest injuries
Red Sox vs Giants weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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