We're running with run lines for our MLB best bets today, taking advantage of the prices available at Polymarket (which allows users across the country to join in on baseball action).
Read on to see why our expert MLB picks for April 22 feature the Cubs, Padres, and Dodgers all winning by multiple runs.
MLB expert picks for today
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
 Josh Inglis: SD -1.5 |
-104 |
 Neil Parker: CHC -1.5 |
+122 |
 Joe Osborne: LAD -1.5 |
-117 |
Prices courtesy of Polymarket.
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Josh Inglis' expert pick: Padres -1.5
Price: 51¢ (-104) at Polymarket
Don’t let the sub-4.00 ERA from Tomoyuki Sugano fool you: He’s been one of the luckiest pitchers to start the year, carrying a 7.71 xERA vs. a 3.92 actual ERA. He’s getting hit hard, running a low BABIP and stranding 88% of runners — clear regression signals. The San Diego Padres, sitting at 16-7 SU, are well-positioned to stack runs tonight, and a late comeback is unlikely with a fully available bullpen, including closer Mason Miller. The fair price on the moneyline sits around -195, versus a -165 market, and the run line breakeven is closer to -130, making -104 strong value. The Rockies were just shut out last night, and I'm expecting those struggles to continue today.
Neil Parker's expert pick: Cubs -1.5
Price: 45¢ (+122) at Polymarket
The Cubs are on a 10-3 heater, while scoring 6.4 runs per game and pacing the majors in wOBA during that span. Chicago has also covered the run line in eight of those 10 wins — and 14 of the past 22 at Wrigley Field overall. Philadelphia is projected to open with Kyle Backhus, followed by veteran Taijuan Walker in a bulk role, which sets up poorly for the Phillies: Walker has been saddled with a 5.08 ERA and 4.90 xFIP, alongside the fourth-lowest strikeout-to-walk rate (7.9%) in the majors across the last four seasons.
Joe Osborne's expert pick: Dodgers -1.5
Price: 54¢ (-117) at Polymarket
If Shohei Ohtani’s first three starts are any indication, this could be his best season yet on the mound. He’s posted a 0.50 ERA with 18 strikeouts and a 0.72 WHIP, limiting baserunners at an elite level, which lines up strongly against a Giants lineup that's ranked 27th in OBP over the last two weeks. Meanwhile, Tyler Mahle has allowed 5+ earned runs in two of his last three starts and faces the league’s top offense vs. right-handed pitching. I'm also expecting to see a motivated Dodgers team after last night’s loss: They’re 5-1 in games following a defeat in 2026.
More MLB best bets for today
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
| Orioles ML | +115 |
| Read analysis in our Orioles vs. Royals predictions | |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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