Not only is there a full slate of baseball on tap today, but we've got five (count 'em!) MLB expert picks to go along with it.
It's a mix of moneyline predictions with a pair of Overs, including a Miami Marlins upset over Paul Skenes and the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Consider these angles (and more below) as you finalize your MLB picks on Tuesday, Aug. 11.
MLB expert picks for today
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
 Josh Inglis: SEA/NYY o7.5 |
-122 |
 Jon Metler: MIA ML |
+104 |
 Neil Parker: CHC/WAS o8.5 |
-117 |
 Joe Osborne: MIN ML |
-108 |
 Dustin Saracini: TOR ML |
-133 |
Prices courtesy of Polymarket.
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Josh Inglis' expert pick: Mariners at Yankees Over 7.5
Price: 55¢ (-122) at Polymarket
This game projects for 9.89 runs with a fair price of -181 on this total, making the Over a buy even at 8.5 runs at -110.
Bryan Woo is coming off a hefty 100-pitch outing, a number he has reached just once this season, while averaging fewer than 90 pitches per start. That workload could be an issue against a New York Yankees lineup in a favorable hitting environment.
It’s also a good spot to fade Ryan Weathers, who has not allowed a run in his last two starts but still owns the 11th-worst hard-hit rate among MLB starters this season. Woo is even worse, ranking ninth-worst. Both starters also rank in the Bottom 50 in Blast Contact%.
Looking at the later innings, both bullpens rank in the Bottom 5 in WAR over the last 30 days. With pitching concerns from start to finish, there are enough paths to runs to back the Over on this short total.
- Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
- How to watch: TBS
Jon Metler's expert pick: Marlins moneyline
Price: 49¢ (+104) at Polymarket
Paul Skenes hasn't looked like the same pitcher we've seen over the last two seasons. His fastball is down roughly 2 mph from his rookie season, and the Miami Marlins lineup construction takes away one of his biggest weapons: a devastating slider on the outer half against right-handed hitters.
The Marlins are expected to start six left-handed bats, while Otto Lopez and Xavier Edwards give them low-strikeout hitters at the top who can work deep counts and put the ball in play.
Skenes has also struggled to pitch deep into games lately, rarely reaching the sixth inning. Miami's disciplined lineup should force him to work, drive up his pitch count, and potentially chase him early.
Polymarket has the Marlins at 49 cents, but I make them closer to 54 cents, so I'm backing the slight underdogs at home.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- How to watch: SportsNet Pittsburgh, Marlins.TV
Neil Parker's expert pick: Cubs at Nationals Over 8.5
Price: 54¢ (-117) at Polymarket
This is a low total considering the Washington Nationals pace the majors in wOBA while averaging 5.4 runs per game over the past 30 days, and the Chicago Cubs check in second in the metric while scoring 5.8 per game.
The Chicago bats are set up to do damage at the dish tonight, too. Washington righty Jake Irvin has surrendered the third-highest barrel percentage among pitchers with at least 50 innings. And while Cubbies lefty Shota Imanaga has surrendered two runs or fewer in each of his past seven starts, his 1.77 ERA during the stretch is miles below his 3.75 xERA and 3.50 xFIP.
So, with the Nationals ranking second in wOBA against lefties for the campaign and second in xwOBA across their past 24 games, I’m also expecting Washington to put runs on the board.
- Time: 6:45 p.m. ET
- How to watch: Marquee, Nationals.TV
Joe Osborne's expert pick: Twins moneyline
Price: 52¢ (-108) at Polymarket
Bailey Ober has been a completely different pitcher at Target Field, posting a 2.72 ERA compared to a 6.75 mark on the road.
The Minnesota Twins are 7-2 in his nine home starts, and he's handled this Baltimore Orioles lineup before, limiting their hitters to a .606 OPS across 60 combined at-bats.
The Orioles have also been brutal against right-handed pitching lately, ranking 27th in OPS over the last two weeks. Baltimore could also unravel late as its bullpen has been one of the worst in the league, posting an awful 6.26 ERA over those 14 days.
- Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- How to watch: MASN, Twins.TV
Dustin Saracini's expert pick: Blue Jays moneyline
Price: 57¢ (-133) at Polymarket
Dylan Cease comes into his start with an extended history of dominance against these Boston Red Sox, striking them out at a 29% clip across 104 plate appearances.
This includes limiting the Boston middle-of-the-lineup hitters, Wilyer Abreu and Willson Contreras, to a combined 6-for-28 mark with an expected batting average of .176 or lower.
With an outstanding 31% whiff rate against this lineup, and Cease allowing just one earned run across his last 22 innings, expect much of the same from the Cy Young candidate tonight. The Toronto Blue Jays win this one in a low-scoring affair.
- Time: 7:07 p.m. ET
- How to watch: NESN, Sportsnet
More MLB best bets for today
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
| PHI/STL u8.5 | -116 |
| Read analysis in our Phillies vs. Cardinals predictions | |
| NYM ML | +110 |
| Read analysis in our Mets vs. Braves predictions | |
| DET ML | -121 |
| Read analysis in our Guardians vs. Tigers predictions | |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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