The Atlanta Braves are -130 favorites to even their series against the New York Mets tonight.
With Martin Perez poised to regress, my Mets vs. Braves predictions and MLB picks see value in backing the road team to win again in Game 2 on Tuesday, Aug. 11.
Who will win Mets vs Braves today: Mets moneyline (+110)
Martin Perez is sporting a 1.42 ERA over the past month despite a 3.87 xFIP and 4.37 SIERA. Regression is about to come knocking, and the New York Mets are a great bet to force the issue.
They have hit lefties extremely well over the last 30 days, ranking fourth in ISO and sixth in wOBA.
New York plated at least three runs against Perez in the last two matchups, and I expect more of the same tonight.
Nolan McLean is in excellent form, posting a 31% K-rate and 3.02 xFIP across the last 30 days.
Back New York to +100.
COVERS INTEL: Perez ranks in the 39th percentile in xERA, and should have trouble slowing down a red-hot Mets offense.
Mets vs Braves Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (-110)
Perez has held opponents to a .184 batting average on balls in play and stranded more than 90% of baserunners the past month.
He's been around a long time and owns a career .303 BABIP and 71.4 LOB%. Suffice to say, these results are not sustainable.
The Mets are a likely candidate to bring those numbers back to earth in their current form.
While McLean is an excellent pitcher, he possesses a 4.01 ERA against teams ranking Top 10 in xwOBA and OPS against righties — and the Atlanta Braves fit the criteria.
Play to -113.
Mets vs Braves home run prediction: Mike Yastrzemski (+625)
Mike Yastrzemski is riding a power surge. He owns a strong 22.5% barrel rate over his past 10 games and has hit 11 balls at least 300 feet during that span.
He's left the yard a couple of times along the way while picking up four additional near home runs.
He's been disciplined at the plate, posting a 7% swinging strike rate. That should help him hang in there against McLean and his high-end strikeout prowess.
I’d back this down to +575.
- ML/RL bets: 75-67, -6.70 units
- Over/Under bets: 78-58-6, +10.79 units
Mets vs Braves weather
The bats will see a slight boost with temperatures in the 80s and winds blowing west.
Mets vs Braves odds
- Moneyline: Mets +110 | Braves -130
- Run line: Mets +1.5 (-190) | Braves -1.5 (+160)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-105) | Under 8.5 (-115)
Mets vs Braves trend
New York has won 11 of its last 15 away games (+8.20 units, 53% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Braves.
How to watch Mets vs Braves and game info
| Location | Truist Park, Cumberland, GA |
| Date | Tuesday, Aug. 11, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | SNY, BravesVsn |
| Mets starting pitcher | Nolan McLean (8-7, 3.51 ERA) |
| Braves starting pitcher | Martin Perez (7-6, 3.14 ERA) |
Mets vs Braves latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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