NFL football returns this week, but that doesn't mean action on the diamond stops.
Our experts have banded together to bring you a trio of MLB picks for Sept. 7, highlighted by a total play in the Cardinals vs. Giants game.
MLB expert picks for today
| Pick | Probability |
|---|---|
 Jon Metler: Cubs ML |
48% |
 Neil Parker: Royals ML |
51% |
 Joe Osborne: Cardinals vs. Giants - Over 7.5 |
53% |
Probabilities courtesy of Polymarket. For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
Trade on MLB at Polymarket!
Sign up now using our exclusive Polymarket promo code 'COVERS' (on your mobile app only) and get a $20 trading bonus after you deposit $10 to trade on any other event contracts — including MLB expert picks!
*Eligible locations only
Jon Metler's expert pick: Cubs moneyline
Price: 48¢ at Polymarket
The Chicago Cubs are trading at 48% on Polymarket, but I make them closer to a 51% favorite.
Two factors stand out to me. First, I'm much more comfortable backing Matthew Boyd on the road, where he owns a 2.83 ERA compared to a 5.40 ERA at Wrigley Field.
Second, Brewers starter Robert Gasser relies heavily on his slider.
The Cubs have several right-handed bats — including Alex Bregman, Nico Hoerner, and Seiya Suzuki — who are either patient against off-speed pitches from left-handed pitchers or have swing paths that profile well against the slider.
If Gasser can't generate outs with his slider, he'll be forced to attack the zone with a low-velocity fastball. Chicago also faced him just six days ago, giving its hitters a recent look at his stuff and an even greater advantage in an already difficult matchup.
- Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
- How to watch: Brewers.TV, Marquee
Neil Parker's expert pick: Royals moneyline
Price: 51¢ at Polymarket
The Diamondbacks are 28th in wOBA and 30th in xwOBA over the past two weeks, so with the Kansas City Royals respectively checking in ninth and eighth in the two metrics, I’m expecting Kansas City to pull away.
Royals lefty Noah Cameron has also settled in down the stretch with a high-end 2.34 xERA and 2.82 xFIP across his past seven starts, while the Diamondbacks counter with inexperienced righty Jose Cabrera (4.84 xERA and 5.00 xFIP).
- Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
- How to watch: One national/two local
Joe Osborne's expert pick: Cardinals vs Giants - Over 7.5
Price: 53¢ at Polymarket
We’ve got all the ingredients for an Over tonight in San Francisco, with a low total and 14.6 mph winds blowing out.
Both offenses are swinging hot bats, with the St. Louis Cardinals ranking first in OPS over the past week, while the San Francisco Giants sit eighth. They should be able to tee off against two struggling starters.
Logan Webb has been rocked for 16 earned runs across his last three starts, including nine last time out, while Michael McGreevy has surrendered 14 over the same span.
The bullpens offer little relief, ranking 26th and 21st in ERA over the past two weeks. With St. Louis going Over in 14 of its last 17, Over 7.5 is the play.
- Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
- How to watch: NBC
More MLB best bets for today
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
| Orioles ML | 55% |
| Read analysis in our Guardians vs. Royals predictions | |
| Giants ML | 55% |
| Read analysis in our Cardinals vs. Giants predictions | |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
