Dodgers vs Royals Prediction, Picks & Best Bets for Today’s MLB Game

It’s not often that you get the best player in baseball to record 2+ total bases at close to EVEN money. That’s the case on Sunday against the Kansas City Royals, so I’m pouncing.

Let’s figure out how the books ended up with this number. 

Kansas City sends out Kris Bubic to the mound. The 27-year-old has been one of the most effective starters in baseball with a 2.18 ERA through 15 starts, and he’s a left-hander.

On the surface, it certainly looks like a tough matchup for Shohei Ohtani, hence the depreciation in his props. 

Now, let’s take a closer look and discuss some factors that happen to be working in the Los Angeles Dodgers star’s favor. 

First off, while Bubic is an amazing pitcher, his 2.18 ERA is well off from his 3.03 xERA and 3.31 xFIP. So, some slight regression is coming the southpaw’s way once his 79.7% left-on-base percentage and 4.8% home run to fly ball ratio begin to regulate. 

He also has reverse splits (.240/.313/.387 slash line against left-handed hitters), and Ohtani hits lefties very well (.319 BA and 167 wRC+). 

The weather forecast makes for a hitter’s paradise at Kauffman Stadium. Temperatures will be in the upper 80s and lower 90s, and the wind will be blowing out to left field at 9.2 mph.

The books seem to have heavily taken into consideration Bubic’s performance this season, but less so the reverse platoon splits and favorable weather conditions. 

Ohtani doesn’t need much help to have a productive day at the office. He’s averaging 2.5 total bases across his last 10 games and has recorded 2+ total bases in four of his last six outings. 

The Dodgers don’t have the best pitching situation on Sunday as Justin Wrobleski (4.91 ERA) will work in a bulk reliever role. He’s allowing a lot of hard contact (fourth percentile average exit velocity, sixth percentile hard-hit rate), so Kansas City stands a good chance of contributing to this total. 

Despite the seeming pitcher advantage for Kansas City, I’m taking this opportunity to buy low on one of the best teams in baseball, lined as essentially a pick ‘em. Bubic is showing signs of mortality (10 earned runs across his last three starts), and the Royals have come up short in three of his last four starts.