MLB Picks

Kansas City bats are off to a bit of a slow start, ranking 16th in OPS and 17th in wRC+, and face a Brewers bullpen that ranks second in xFIP.

The Brew Crew enter this game ranked third in both wRC+ and OPS and have plated six or more runs in five of their six games this season, going against Royals prospect Luinder Avila.

The  Mariners mashed away from home last season, posting 5.09 runs per game. Expect that same production as they begin their first road trip this year. The M's retained Josh Naylor while adding leadoff man Brendan Donovan to a lineup anchored by MVP runner-up Cal Raleigh and Randy Arozarena. They'll have success against Angels lefty Reid Detmers who has been shaky as a starter and is better out of the bullpen. Detmers didn't make a single start last year but had a 6.70 ERA in 17 starts in 2024. He started last Saturday and gave up three runs in 4 2/3 frames.

Brendan Donovan is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card today, which would be a downgrade from his 71% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.. Reid Detmers will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Brendan Donovan in today's matchup.. Brendan Donovan has a 79th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.7%) and will have to hit them out towards the game's 11th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.. Playing on the road generally diminishes hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Brendan Donovan in today's matchup.. This season, there has been a decline in Brendan Donovan's quickness with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 26.55 ft/sec last year to 24.94 ft/sec currently.

Yordan Alvarez looks like his old self and is now hitting .417 with a 1.480 OPS, three dingers and six RBIs for the season. He also has reverse splits vs. left-handed pitchers, so don't worry about the matchup vs. Springs.

Langeliers leads the big leagues in home runs with five, and he's gone deep in all but two games so far. The Athletics face Cristian Javier tonight, who allowed two bombs in his season debut. 

Arizona could also score some runs against Atlanta starter Grant Holmes. His fastball's effectiveness was in the bottom 8% of pitchers last year, and he struggled giving up hard-hit balls and walking too many batters.

Holmes took a loss in his first start of the year, giving up seven baserunners and three runs in five innings to the Royals. He's allowed nine runs in nine innings in two career starts against Arizona.

The Braves are hitting better against southpaws (.286/.392/.476) than right-handers (.279/.347/.459) this season. 

Three Atlanta players have a career OPS over 1.000 against Rodriguez, and Matt Olson (.971) and Ronald Acuna Jr. (.833) just missed.

Juan Soto is 4-for-11 with a double and two dingers in his career vs. Tyler Mahle, good for a .338 expected batting average and a .976 expected slugging.

These two offenses have had a slow start to the season, and a matchup at the pitcher-friendly Oracle Park likely results in a low-scoring game. 

The Giants have an 80 wRC+ en route to a 2-3-2 O/U record, while the Mets have an 88 wRC+ and are 2-5 O/U. 

Both bullpens have a SIERA under 3.90 and have most of their best arms well-rested. They’re throwing behind starting pitchers projected to have an ERA below 4.00 this season.