With the San Diego Padres breathing down the Los Angeles Dodgers’ necks in the NL West, taking care of business in this series against the Miami Marlins will be paramount for the visitors.
Bobby Miller’s on the mound for LAD in tonight’s opener, and my Dodgers vs. Marlins predictions see him playing a part in the Over.
Let's get into why with my MLB picks for Tuesday, September 17.
Dodgers vs Marlins prediction
My best bet
Over 9.5 (-105 at FanDuel)
My analysis
Bobby Miller’s still a young pitcher who many believe in, and while I’m among those folks, I have to admit that his performance this season is becoming harder and harder to fathom with each passing start.
The Los Angeles Dodgers right-hander developed the ability to pitch to ground balls a year ago, as his strikeout prowess took a little while to manifest itself at this level, and when the strikeouts began to pile up, he was a full-fledged ace.
He’s worked backwards this season as his strikeout rate has dropped to 20.5%, and with his declining ground ball rate and large jump in exit velocity, we’ve seen this young man pitch to a .464 xwOBA on contact. Making matters worse is his 11.9% walk rate, which is a disastrous number.
Miller’s only seemed to get worse after coming back up from the minors, allowing 10 home runs in five starts with 10 walks across his last three outings. He did find eight punchouts against the Angels a couple weeks ago, but given the matchup, it’s no surprise — it also didn’t help much, as he allowed seven earned runs.
The Miami Marlins were surprisingly solid at the plate just a week ago, but has gone back downhill over the past week and ranks dead last in wRC+ over the past seven days. With that said, it has limited strikeouts and has just been seeking some assistance from an opposing pitcher.
Miller should deliver that help, and this Dodgers bullpen has also gotten a bit worse over the last calendar month with a 3.71 FIP. The runs should be coming fast and furious as the Marlins deploy Darren McCaughan, who’s failed to miss bats and has allowed five or more hits in each of his three starts this month, posting a 5.27 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in 13 2-3 innings.
Shohei Ohtani pick: A winning combination
My best bet
Shohei Ohtani Over 2.5 hits, runs, and RBIs (-125 at DraftKings)
My analysis
This one’s a tricky game to take Shohei Ohtani props, as the total suggests there will be plenty of L.A. runs and likely five plate appearances for the Japanese slugger.
I’m not keen on backing him to go for three total bases, and with an inexperienced arm on the hill who’s had sporadic walk issues, it’s possible the patient Ohtani reaches base on a free pass more than once. You’re also not going to find much value in backing him to score a run, however, which leads me to this combo market.
Ohtani has now scored a run in his last two games with a pair of RBIs in each of them to boot. Racking up six multi-hit games in his last 13 contests, this seems to be the market to target.
Dodgers vs Marlins same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 9.5
Shohei Ohtani 3+ hits, runs, and RBIs
Jonah Bride 2+ hits, runs, and RBIs
While the Marlins are ice cold at the plate right now, the same can’t be said for their 28-year-old journeyman infielder.
Jonah Bride is hitting .318 over the last week of play, stepping to the plate a team-high 25 times atop the order — and over that span he’s hitting .318. He’s picked up two hits in each of his last two games to give him 11 over the last nine, and in that span, he’s scored six times and driven home five runs.
Miller’s going to struggle here, and a contact maestro like Bride is just the man to target. We won’t have to worry about him forgoing hits, either, considering his incredibly low walk rate — and I think he makes an excellent third leg of the parlay as a result.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Dodgers vs Marlins odds
Dodgers vs Marlins live odds
Dodgers vs Marlins opening odds
- Moneyline: Los Angeles -200 | Miami +165
- Run line: Los Angeles -1.5 (-125) | Miami +1.5 (+105)
- Over/Under: Over 9.5 (-105) | Under 9.5 (-115)
Dodgers vs Marlins moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Dodgers opened as -184 favorites and have steadily risen as the day has gone on — moving past -200 on the moneyline as of late Tuesday afternoon.
- A commanding 93% of the bets and 89% of the money are on the Dodgers to win over at DraftKings.
- The total remains at the opening line of 9.5 runs with some slight, but steady movement towards the Over.
- The Over has accounted for 75% of the total handle, but just 58% of the tickets.
Dodgers vs Marlins trend
The Dodgers have hit the Over in 42 of their last 68 games (+16.90 Units / 23% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Marlins.
Dodgers vs Marlins game info
| Location: | LoanDepot Park, Miami, FL |
| Date: | Tuesday, 9-17-2024 |
| First pitch: | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SNLA, BSFL |
| Dodgers starting pitcher: | Bobby Miller (2-4, 8.17 ERA) |
| Marlins starting pitcher: | Darren McCaughan (0-0, 7.06 ERA) |
Dodgers vs Marlins latest injuries
Dodgers vs Marlins weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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