The Los Angeles Dodgers (28-15) have dominated their rivalry with the San Francisco Giants (19-24), winning five straight and eight of the last 10. They’ll look to pile on during Game 2 on Tuesday in a tilt that features two young right-handed starting pitchers in Gavin Stone and Keaton Winn.
According to the MLB odds, the Dodgers are -165 on the moneyline and the total is set at 8.
I’m taking a closer look at Stone’s props as the precocious hurler has been on fire lately and faces a short-handed Giants lineup. See what I’ve selected for my Dodgers vs. Giants prediction as I provide my full MLB picks for Tuesday, May 14.
Dodgers vs Giants prediction
My best bet
Gavin Stone Over 4.5 strikeouts (+132 at FanDuel)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Something has clicked for Gavin Stone. The 25-year-old hurler for the Los Angeles Dodgers was shelled during his first taste of the big leagues, rocking an obscene 9.00 ERA across 31 innings a year ago. He’s since lowered his ERA to 3.55 this season after allowing just three earned runs in his last three starts (20 innings).
If we go back a little further, he hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in any of his last five starts. He’s done this by successfully limiting hard contact (86th percentile hard-hit percentage, 83rd percentile average exit velocity), and avoiding walks (three in his last 20 innings).
One area that hasn’t been a strength yet is the ability to strike batters out. The Central Arkansas product is averaging 6.39 strikeouts per nine innings for the second year in a row and his K-rate is a measly 17.1%.
However, there’s some reason for optimism that these numbers will improve. He generated a ton of punchouts in the minors, averaging over 10 strikeouts per nine innings at every step along the way. If we looked at only swinging strike rate (14.4% last year, 12.2% this year), we’d expect Stone to have generated a lot of strikeouts. While that hasn’t been the case yet, there are enough positive signs to expect an uptick sooner or later.
The projection systems strongly believe that his swing-and-miss stuff will continue, tabbing him with a 13.3% swinging strike rate. The most bullish system (ATC DC) calls for a 23% K-rate and 8.8 strikeouts per nine innings.
I understand where the projection systems are coming from because Stone has been pitching very effectively for the last month and has been a high-strikeout guy throughout the minors. It’s only a matter of time before he puts the two together, at least to some extent.
I’ll bet on that coming to fruition against a San Francisco Giants lineup that isn’t very good against right-handed pitching (96 wRC+, .299 OPS, 22.9% K-rate) to start with, and that’s before factoring in injuries. The list of absentee regulars includes Michael Conforto, Jorge Soler, Nick Ahmed, Jung Hoo Lee, and Austin Slater.
I’ll be on Stone racking up at least five Ks against a Giants lineup comprised of scabs and substitutes.
Dodgers vs Giants same-game parlay (SGP)
Gavin Stone Over 4.5 strikeouts
Under 8.5
Max Muncy Under 0.5 hits
Giants starter Keaton Winn was knocked around in his last two starts, surrendering 12 earned runs in 4 2/3 innings while allowing 12 hits, two walks, and striking out a single batter. However, he’s shown enough promise outside of that and is in the 92nd percentile in chase percentage (34.3%) and the 92nd percentile in ground ball rate (58%).
The Dodgers are in the midst of a mini-slump at the dish (104 wRC+ and .313 wOBA across the last 15 days) against righties, taking a step back from their usually elite numbers. Most of their lineup has not hit splitters very well, which is key considering Winn opts for that pitch on 42.4% of his offerings.
One such hitter is Max Muncy, who has posted negative runs above average on splitters for three straight years.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Dodgers vs Giants odds
Dodgers vs Giants live odds
Dodgers vs Giants opening odds
- Run line: Los Angeles -1.5 | San Francisco +1.5
- Moneyline: Los Angeles -159 | San Francisco +146
- Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8
Dodgers vs Giants spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Dodgers are 4-1 straight-up in Stone’s last five starts while the Giants have dropped two in a row with Winn on the bump.
- These teams have been on a roller coaster against the total, going 4-0 O/U in their last four meetings but 0-6 O/U in the six games prior.
- The Giants have hit their team total Under in 55 of their last 85 games.
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Dodgers vs Giants trend
Stone has notched at least five strikeouts in each of his three starts against a teams have a K-rate above 21% against right-handed pitching. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Giants
Dodgers vs Giants game info
| Location: | Oracle Park, San Francisco, CA |
| Date: | Tuesday, 5-14-2024 |
| First pitch: | 9:45 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SNLA, NBCSBA |
| Dodgers starting pitcher: | Gavin Stone (3-1, 3.55 ERA) |
| Giants starting pitcher: | Keaton Winn (3-5, 5.64 ERA) |
Dodgers vs Giants latest injuries
Dodgers vs Giants weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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