Dodgers vs Braves Predictions, Picks, Odds: Strider Continues Search For the Zone

The Los Angeles Dodgers and Atlanta Braves will meet in Game 2 of a three-game series tonight.

Last night saw L.A. win in a thrilling 8-6 contest, but Atlanta will now send its mustachioed ace to the mound when Spencer Strider is handed the ball. Strider's numbers have been nothing short of spectacular this year, but location issues and some patient bats may very well stir up some trouble for the hurler.

What's my best bet for this matchup? Find out in my MLB picks piece for the Braves vs. Dodgers.

Dodgers vs Braves odds

Dodgers vs Braves predictions

I'm betting on Spencer Strider tonight, but not in the way you might think. 

The dominant strikeout thrower has an issue, and it's mostly location based. Three of his last five starts have seen him go just exactly five innings, and many of those longevity issues were location issues or a simple lack of efficiency. It's the downside of being such a heavy strikeout pitcher. He throws just over 4 pitches per plate appearance, placing him in the Top 10% of pitchers in that category.

He walked multiple batters in each, and nearly half of the pitches in his last start were thrown out of the zone. That's been a similar case most of the season.

I wanted to isolate Max Muncy to draw a walk and still may do that, but I need more than +100. Muncy is seventh in the NL in pitches seen per plate appearance, and given Strider's tendency to have location problems, he's a strong candidate to draw a walk. But Muncy is a good overall representation of the Dodgers lineup and its patience at the plate. Los Angeles is:

• First in walks per game.
• First in pitches seen per plate appearance. 
• Second in walk rate against righties at 11.2%.
• Last in chase rate.

All of these things add up to a challenging outing, and my handicap is essentially as simple as that. I looked at his Under 18.5 outs, but the -170 price it's been bet down to is just too much out of my wheelhouse. So I'll be looking to see if the market moves it to 17.5, and if I can get it at plus money, I'll grab it. 

The Dodgers are a great fastball-hitting team, and while you'll never get Strider fully off his best pitch, he may dig into the arsenal a little more than usual tonight. If that happens, it's an added boost. Strider has looked a little more uncomfortable when going to those pitches, which leads to more location issues.

No matter what happens here, I'm backing the Dodgers lineup to make Strider work, and one of the best ways to do that is by playing his Over walks. 

My best bet: Spencer Strider Over 1.5 walks allowed (-125)

Dodgers vs Braves moneyline analysis

It's Dodgers or nothing here, and it will likely be nothing. 

I get that Bobby Miller will be starting his first career in the majors, and I get that he's been less than stellar. I don't think he'll slow down the Braves' offense a ton, but I'm not sure Strider should be quite the big favorite he is. I've mentioned the matchup issues he'll have tonight from a walking perspective but diving into them a little more is revealing.

L.A. owns the second best wRC+ in baseball against righties. And while Strider can be as dominant as any pitcher, I've found myself fading him at times this season against power bat lineups. Because of how many fastballs he throws, he has the barrel rate and hard-hit rate issues that follow them — two categories he ranks in the Bottom 35% of baseball in.

Still, more than the +170 price here is needed for a pitcher who gave up more than three earned runs in two of his last AAA starts before being called. Given his inexperience at this level, I played ½ unit on Ronald Acuna to steal a base at +250 on bet365. My hesitation to back him is that he may struggle to deal with a team that will put so much pressure on him.

Dodgers vs Braves Over/Under analysis

I lean Over here. I projected a total of 8.5, which bounced around on that number all morning. I could grab 8.0 at -120 at bet365 and would wait for that if it's not available upon publication. 

There's a true public and sharp alignment on the Over here. As of publication, the Over attracted 80% of the money and 72% of the tickets. The considerable hesitation here is the conditions in Truist Park tonight. Winds will be blowing to right field, and temperatures will be mild for late May in Georgia.

But, if we can get past that, there's certainly the recipe for runs. The Braves have spent most of the season tops in baseball in first-inning runs. So, if they strike early tonight, it could be enough to make a pitcher making his first career start spiral. 

The trends certainly favor one side here. The Over has hit a 90% clip in the last 11 Atlanta home games, with a total of 7.5 to 8.5. Dodgers' games have gone Over in four of their previous five games. 

Dodgers vs Braves game info

Starting pitchers

Bobby Miller (0-0, 0.0 ERA) It's the first career MLB start tonight for the young righty from the University of Louisville, and it comes at an odd time. Miller has had a career 3.79 ERA in the minors, but this season has been one of his worst. His ERA sits Over five, with two of his last three starts seeing three or more earned runs in less than four innings. There may be a thought process of a change of scenery that may do Miller some good.

Spencer Strider (4-1, 2.96 ERA): By now, you know the story of Spencer Strider. He's one of the most impressive young arms in the game and can run up the strikeout numbers on even a given night. However, his deadly fastball, which makes up over 60% of his pitches thrown, comes with issues. Some of those issues have been more pronounced this season.

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The Dodgers are 4-1 in their last five meetings with the Braves. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs Braves

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