The struggling Toronto Blue Jays are set to take on the Los Angeles Dodgers in the final game of a three-game set at home on April 28.
My Dodgers vs Blue Jays predictions discuss just how bad of a matchup this will be for Kevin Gausman, and my MLB picks are tailing Mookie Betts having a field day.
Dodgers vs Blue Jays prediction
My best bet
Mookie Betts Over 0.5 RBI (+175 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
It’s been a tough start to the season for Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Kevin Gausman. An All-Star last season, his ERA is the highest it’s been since his rookie season (5.57), and he’s given up 17 runs in 21 innings of work.
It won’t get any easier against this star-studded Los Angeles Dodgers lineup, led by NL MVP favorite Mookie Betts.
Betts is off to one of the hottest starts of his career, leading the team in hits, RBI, batting average, OBP, SLG, and OPS. Pretty good, right? The seven-time All-Star has already dominated the Blue Jays in the series with an outrageous five hits in eight at-bats while chipping in two RBI.
For as good as Gausman has been in his career, he’s in a slump right now, and Betts isn’t the type of hitter who’s going to let him get out of it.
While Gausman only uses two pitches more than 14% of the time, he can be a tricky pitcher for some with the split finger in his arsenal. He’s using it 41.5% of the time this season, but Betts has long found success against split fingers.
He’s batting .333 with a .667 SLG against them this season after hitting .364 against them in 2023. Yet, it’s probably Gausman’s best option, with his four-seamer (41.5%) being one of Betts’ favorite pitches.
The Dodgers shortstop is mashing four-seamers this season with a .378 average and .595 SLG. The only other pitch Gausman really ever goes to is his slider (13.1%), but he’s not going to want to use that against Betts — he’s batting .462 with a .769 SLG against them.
With the Dodgers leading the MLB in OBP (.354), Betts should have plenty of opportunity to slam the ball into play and bring a teammate or two home.
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Blue Jays star player prop
My best bet
George Springer Over 1.5 hits (+195 at PROLINE+)
With the Dodgers looking like they’ll have a bullpen day, relief pitcher Michael Grove (6.00 ERA) is expected to start, with Ryan Yarbrough (3.52) projected to see the most time on the mound. Between those two and whichever other pitchers the Dodgers trot out, George Springer can capitalize.
Springer has been somewhat shaky to start the season but is second on the team in hits and has six in his last four games. I'm banking on him having a big day against Yarbrough, who leans on his sinker (39%) and curveball (33.4%). Springer is batting better than .290 against both pitches this season.
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Dodgers vs Blue Jays odds
Dodgers vs Blue Jays live odds
Dodgers vs Blue Jays opening odds
- Run line: Los Angeles +1.5 (-191) | Toronto -1.5 (+170)
- Moneyline: Los Angeles +111 | Toronto -120
- Over/Under: Over 8.0 (-114) | Under 8.0 (+101)
Dodgers vs Blue Jays spread and Over/Under analysis
- After dropping both the previous games in the series, the Blue Jays still opened as a -120 to -125 home favorite. The line has seen little movement to this point, but the Dodgers can be had for as long as +108.
- Toronto has had an inconsistent start to the season at 13-15, sitting fourth in the AL East, while LA has been among the best at 18-11, putting them first in the NL West.
- The Over/Under opened as high as 8.5, but has since come down to 8.0 with the Under being available at even-money at some books.
- The Dodgers are one of the best Over teams, hitting it in 17 of 29 games, but Toronto has hit it in just 11 of 28.
Dodgers vs Blue Jays trend
The Dodgers have hit the game total Over in 39 of their last 63 away games (+16.00 Units / 23% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Blue Jays
Dodgers vs Blue Jays game info
| Location: | Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Sunday, 4-28-2024 |
| First pitch: | 1:37 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SNLA, SN1 |
| Dodgers starting pitcher: | Michael Grove (0-0, 6.00 ERA) |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher: | Kevin Gausman (0-3, 5.57 ERA) |
Dodgers vs Blue Jays latest injuries
Dodgers vs Blue Jays weather
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