Cubs vs Padres Picks and Predictions: SD's Bats Roll vs. Chicago's Limited Arms

With a starter that doesn't go past four innings and a limited bullpen, the Cubs could be in trouble at the mound against this Padres lineup. We break it all down in our MLB betting picks and predictions for Chicago vs. San Diego below.

Last Updated: May 11, 2022 12:52 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Manny Machado San Diego Padres MLB
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After playing last night, the Chicago Cubs and San Diego Padres will meet at Petco Park for this Wednesday afternoon contest.

This is a matchup between two teams heading in opposite directions, but that doesn’t mean the Cubs are going to roll over and let this one get away. 

For our favorite betting plays in this meeting between Chicago and San Diego, check out our MLB betting picks and predictions below.

Cubs vs Padres odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

There’s been some uncertainty over who would start this game for the Cubs, but the Padres opened as -168 favorites now that it’s been announced. Since then, San Diego has gone up to as high as -186 on some sportsbooks. 

The total, which opened at 7.5, is now up to 8 on all but one of the sportsbooks with available odds.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Cubs vs Padres predictions

Picks made on 5/11/2022 at 12:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Cubs vs Padres game info

Location: Petco Park, San Diego, CA
Date: Wednesday, May 11, 2022
First pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
TV: Marquee Sports Network, Bally Sports San Diego

Cubs vs Padres betting preview

Starting pitchers

Keegan Thompson (2-0, 1.17 ERA): The Cubs are sending Thompson to the mound in this game, and the righty has been good this season. The 27-year-old is definitely more of an opener than a real starter, as he only pitches three or four innings, but if he can keep Chicago in this one for that long, that’d be a big win. 

Nick Martinez (2-2, 3.38 ERA): Martinez was really good against the Miami Marlins in his last start, as he allowed only one earned run in seven innings. The 31-year-old has now allowed two or fewer runs in four of his five starts this season. This is, however, the first time since 2015 in which Martinez’s ERA isn’t 5.59 or higher. At some point, you’d have to think this year’s number is going up. 


Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Cubs: Seiya Zuzuki OF (Questionable), Nick Madrigal 2B (Questionable), Michael Hermosillo OF (Out), Marcus Stroman P (Out), Justin Steele P (Out), Ethan Roberts P (Out), Clint Frazier OF (Out), Alec Mills P (Out), Andrelton Simmons SS (Out), Adbert Alzolay P (Out).
Padres: Matt Beaty 1B (Out), Pierce Johnson P (Out), Blake Snell P (Out), Austin Adams P (Out), Fernando Tatis Jr. OF (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Padres are 12-4 in their last 16 games as favorites. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Padres

Cubs vs Padres picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

The Padres ended up hanging on for a 5-4 win over the Cubs on Tuesday, and Chicago has now lost six of its last seven games.

Had it not been for Kyle Hendricks throwing 8 2-3 of shutout ball on Monday, it’s highly unlikely that the Cubs would have found a way to get back in the win column. This team is in really bad form right now, while the Padres continue to play some good baseball.

Chicago is now turning to its bullpen for some extended work on Wednesday, and the Cubs have a bullpen ERA of 3.46. Their collection of relievers isn’t horrible, but it certainly isn't anything to write home about either, and considering the way San Diego is playing this season, it’s just hard to see Chicago as a viable betting option in this game.

The Cubs also had to use four different relievers last night, as Wade Miley only pitched three innings in his first start back from elbow inflammation. That means Chicago could have tired arms in a bullpen game. That's far from optimal.

As for the Padres, it will be Martinez on the mound. The righty is one of the better early stories in the entire league, but it definitely feels like some regression is coming soon. Still, if he can give San Diego something close to a quality start, this game should be relatively straightforward. 

Prediction: Padres moneyline (-160 at DraftKings)

Over/Under analysis

The Cubs might not be having a very good season, but they do have some players that are individually doing solid things at the plate this year.

As such, you can’t expect a guy like Martinez to go out there and blank this Chicago offense. The Cubs are fully capable of getting three or four runs off of him, and that would put Over bettors in great shape in a game like this.

The Padres, who played rather well on Tuesday, should have no trouble piling up a few runs again, as the Cubs should be limited on the hill.

The Over is 5-2 in Chicago’s last seven road games against right-handed starters and 5-2-2 in the Cubs’ last nine games following a loss. It’s also 9-3 in the last 12 games the Padres have played with totals between 7 and 8.5. 

Prediction: Over 7.5 (-115 at BetMGM)

Best bet

Chicago is turning to Thompson in this game, and the righty has been good to start the year. He is, however, a somewhat inexperienced pitcher and had a 4.56 ERA in 23 2-3 innings on the road last season.

Now, he's up against a Padres lineup that's been productive at the plate all year, and Thompson also won’t last more than four innings in this game. That means that San Diego will get a crack at a Chicago bullpen that could be a bit burned out after yesterday. 

The Padres could easily surpass this number, having scored at least five runs in 14 of their 31 games this season. They should have no problem with Chicago's pitching today.

Pick: Padres team total Over 4.5 (-139 at Unibet)

MLB parlays

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