Astros vs Twins Picks and Predictions: Houston is Minnesota's Problem

The Houston Astros are riding high after winning eight straight and suppressing runs at an elite clip. The banged-up Minnesota Twins will be no match for Jose Urquidy or his bullpen behind him. We like Houston to win a low-scoring game tonight.

Last Updated: May 11, 2022 2:31 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Jose Urquidy Houston Astros MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Houston Astros will be looking for their ninth straight win tonight in Minnesota as they take on Chris Archer and the Twins as -120 road favorites. Over the Astros’ winning streak, they’ve outscored their opponents 33-8 and haven't allowed a run in 24 innings.

Can the Astros build on their 5-0 win last night and sweep their third consecutive series? Can Archer pick up his first win of the season despite giving up barrels, walking too many, and not having thrown more than 79 pitches over five starts? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Astros vs. Twins.

Astros vs Twins odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Astros opened as -120 ML road favorites with a total of 7.5, which has since moved to 8.5. Houston closed as -143 favorites in the series opener last night with Justin Verlander on the mound. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Astros vs Twins predictions

Picks made on 5/11/2022 at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Astros vs Twins game info

Location: Target Field, Minneapolis, MN
Date: Wednesday, May 11, 2022
First pitch: 7:40 p.m. ET
TV: AT&T SportsNet Southwest, Bally Sports North

Astros vs Twins betting preview

Starting pitchers

Jose Urquidy (2-1, 4.56 ERA): The pitch-to-contact right-hander is coming off his best start of the season after going six scoreless vs. the Tigers last Thursday. Despite the effort, Urquidy has been giving up a ton of hard contact that has resulted in some of the worst xBA and xSLG numbers in baseball. He doesn’t strike many out and doesn’t walk many, but if his changeup is off, it could be trouble as opponents are hitting over .300 off his fastball, cutter, and curveball. 

Chris Archer (0-0, 3.26 ERA): Archer’s ERA looks nice but the veteran right-hander has not recorded more than 13 outs in any of his five starts. He sits in the bottom 10% in barrel percentage and in the lower third in xBA, xwOBA, BB%, and chase rate. He also hasn’t thrown more than 79 pitches and it will be a struggle for him to even qualify for a win.  


Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Astros: Aledmys Diaz SS (Questionable), Jake Meyers OF (Out).
Twins: Miguel Sano 3B (Out), Luis Arraez 2B (Out), Carlos Correa SS (Out), Byron Buxton OF (Questionable). 

Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Astros are 5-1 SU in their last six meetings in Minnesota. Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Twins

Astros vs Twins picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

The Houston Astros are the hottest team in baseball, riding an eight-game winning streak, and have held opponents to just eight runs over that stretch. Nobody has crossed the plate against the Astros in 24 innings, dating back to their Saturday game against the Tigers. 

Through 30 games, only two other teams have allowed fewer runs than the Astros (Yankees and Dodgers) as Dusty Baker has relied heavily on a bullpen that has the second-best ERA in baseball behind the Yankees. 

Jose Urquidy will get the ball for the Astros and is coming off his best start where he blanked the Tigers over six innings. The righty pitches to a ton of contact, which might be good against a Minnesota lineup that is without Carlos Correa and Luis Arraez and could be missing Byron Buxton for a third straight game. This is a Minnesota outfield that might feature Alex Kirilloff, Gilberto Celestino, and Max Kepler.

The Twins might be 3-1 SU over their last four and took all three from Oakland, but they scored just seven runs over that stretch and could struggle to cross the plate today if Urquidy is on and the bullpen keeps hanging zeros.

The Houston offense might be underperforming to begin the year, but this is still a lethal lineup that is mostly healthy. Having Jose Altuve, Michael Brantley, Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez, Yuli Gurriel, and Kyle Tucker as your Top 6 batters is a big advantage for the visitors tonight. The Astros saddled yesterday’s starter, Joe Ryan, with four runs on four hits (five walks) while also working four walks and knocking three hits off the Minnesota bullpen over five innings in yesterday’s 5-0 win. 

The Houston offense will see Chris Archer, who has not recorded more than 13 outs or thrown more than 79 pitches in any of his five starts. He owns a decent 3.26 ERA but his peripheral numbers via Baseball Savant are not pretty as he doesn’t get many batters to chase (22nd percentile chase rate) and sits in the lower-third percentile in xBA, xwOBA, and hard-hit percentage. 

If and when Archer hands things over to the bullpen, the Astros will get to see a Twins’ relief corps that has an unsustainable 83.3% LOB% and the ninth-best FIP in the American League. 

The Twins might be 11-7 SU at home, but the Astros have the better lineup and their advantage in the bullpen will be a huge factor today as we doubt Archer gets deep in tonight’s start.

PredictionAstros moneyline (-120 at bet365)

Over/Under analysis

The Astros have been the best Under bet in baseball to begin the 2022 season with an 8-22 O/U mark. During their eight-game winning streak, Bakers’ boys are 7-1 to the Under. The starting pitching has been exceptional, the bats are underperforming, and the bullpen has been one of the best in all of baseball. 

Now, this Houston team, which hasn’t allowed a run in two-plus games, faces a wounded Minnesota lineup that has scored just 10 runs over its last five games. Buxton missed the last game, is on the wrong side of questionable for tonight, and will likely watch a lineup that featured zero batters hitting over .238 on Tuesday. The Twins finished with just three hits and two walks in the 5-0 shutout yesterday.

The Twins have been no strangers to low-scoring affairs either as they are 11-17-2 to the Under on the season, 0-4-1 O/U in the last five games, and 5-9-2 O/U at home. 

Offensively, the Twins are slightly better than average with a 110 wRC+, but those numbers are from a much stronger lineup that consisted of Correa, Buxton, and Arraez. Without them, getting runs against Houston could be problematic as the Astros have allowed just eight runs over their last eight games and no team has scored more than two runs against them in any of their last 10. 

The weather might not cooperate with us tonight, though, with rain in the forecast, but if it holds off, the 13 mph winds blowing from left to right should also help suppress some runs.

The Twins have a weak lineup and are struggling to score runs without their best hitters available. Houston is getting great starting pitching and has an elite bullpen while the offense is underperforming. This line has moved a full run to 8.5 after opening at 7.5 but this might be as far as it’s going and we’re riding the Under 8.5 at -110 in a game that might have some weather issues.

PredictionUnder 8.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

Best bet

With a 50% chance of rain at Target Field, we’re staying away from player props as the rain creates plenty of uncertainties in the prop markets. In saying that, we feel this Houston team has too much momentum right now and has no issue winning low-scoring games as the offense still looks to find its stride. This is a team that has won eight in a row, hasn't allowed a run in over 24 innings, and has posted three shutouts over the last nine days. 

The bullpen is worth betting on and Urquidy is coming off a great start. He also gets to pitch to contact vs. a banged-up Minnesota lineup that is struggling to stack runs with its best hitters on the shelf.

Give us the Astros to win their ninth straight game tonight in a match that might feature some rain.

PickAstros moneyline (-120 at bet365)

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