It’s a divisional battle between the St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs this evening, and we expect plenty of offense.
Two stars highlight our prop picks as I dive deep into the matchup to discover the best value on the board in my Sunday Night Baseball props and Cubs vs. Cardinals predictions.
Cubs vs Cardinals Sunday Night Baseball props
Gray Under 5.5 strikeouts (-105)
Tucker home run (+425)- Contreras Over 1.5 bases (+105)
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Cubs vs Cardinals props for Sunday Night Baseball
Sonny Gray Under 5.5 strikeouts (-105 at Caesars)
This number feels a little high for me, with my projections coming in around 4.9 and The BatX projecting Sonny Gray at a pitch count of 85.
The Chicago Cubs haven’t struck out at a high clip all season, and they especially haven’t done it lately. One of the major reasons for that is that they barely chase pitches (third-lowest chase rate in the league) and do a great job making contact when pitches are in the zone (sixth-highest zone contact rate in the league).
The former part of that is key, as Gray is, yes, a strikeout pitcher but also one who relies on chase.
He’ll enter this game with a K rate in the top 80th percentile of baseball but, just as importantly, a chase rate in the top 13th percentile.
When he doesn’t get that chase, naturally those strikeout numbers tend to dip, and I expect him to suffer a similar fate tonight.
Kyle Tucker home run (+425 at Caesars)
The BatX is a fan of Kyle Tucker’s base prop Over tonight, noting his handedness advantage and the environmental aspects in his favor at Busch Stadium. I’m going bigger and taking the Cubs star to go yard.
In a modest nine plate appearances, Tucker has had some nice historical success against Gray, with a .375 batting average and a .625 slugging percentage.
Tucker boasts a strong 11% barrel rate, and Gray, as most strikeout pitchers do, has had a barrel issue all season. Adding a final feather in our cap is Tucker ranking in the top three Cubs in hard-hit rate against all of Gray’s three primary pitches.
Willson Contreras Over 1.5 bases (+105 at Caesars)
We’re rounding our picks off with Willson Contreras to go Over his base total tonight. He’ll hold a platoon advantage against Shota Imanaga and also benefit from the hot weather in St. Louis this evening. There’s more to like, though.
For starters, Imanaga has struggled this season at times when facing lineups with an overwhelming amount of power. Contreras certainly has that in his locker, with the team’s second-best average hard-hit rate and team-leading average barrel rate.
In addition to that, Contreras is a historically strong fastball hitter and will see a pitcher who leans on it heavily, as Imanaga comes into this game with his heater making up 56% of his throwing arsenal.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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