Shota Imanaga looks to continue his historic start to the season as the Chicago Cubs (27-24) visit the St. Louis Cardinals (23-26) for Game 1 of a three-game weekend series beginning Friday night.
According to MLB odds, the Cubs are -140 on the moneyline and the total resides at 8.
I’m taking a particular interest in the total with tonight’s best bet and provide my full MLB picks and Cubs vs Cardinals predictions for Friday, May 24.
Cubs vs Cardinals prediction
My best bet
Under 8 (-120 at Caesars)
My analysis
Shota Imanaga may be an old rookie at 30 years of age, but he’s certainly been an impressive one nonetheless. The Japanese import has an MLB-record low 0.84 ERA through nine starts and is coming off back-to-back scoreless outings against the Pittsburgh Pirates and Atlanta Braves.
He sets up for success again on Friday against a St. Louis Cardinals lineup that struggles to induce damage against southpaws, posting a 77 wRC+ (27th) and .272 wOBA (28th). They rarely get on base, don’t hit for power, and overall have been a woeful bunch against left-handed pitchers.
Imanaga won’t keep a sub-1.00 ERA forever, but his underlying metrics have a lot of positives. He ranks in the 92nd percentile in xERA, the 97th percentile in chase rate, the 85th percentile in whiff rate, and the 90th percentile in walk rate. His splitter has been especially deadly and American hitters simply haven’t been able to get a read on it yet, posting a .196 xBA against the offering while whiffing 45.7% of the time.
The Chicago Cubs have been an Under team this year at 21-28 O/U. That gets exacerbated when Imanaga is on the bump — they’ve scored eight runs or fewer in all but one of his nine starts, and the lone exception was a nine-run performance against the L.A. Dodgers.
Chicago is in a massive slump as of late with a 78 wRC+ (28th) and .276 wOBA (28th) across the last 15 days. Cardinals starter Miles Mikolas is a known commodity at this point and while he’s no ace, he’s coming off his best performance of the year (five innings of one-run ball against the Boston Red Sox) and has a 2.58 ERA across 19 career appearances against the Cubbies.
Cubs vs Cardinals same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 7.5
NRFI
Shota Imanaga Over 5.5 Strikeouts
These teams have combined to go Over the total just twice in the last 10 meetings with one another. The Cubs have cashed the NRFI in six straight games while the Cardinals have done so in three straight.
Imanaga has been a punchout virtuoso with at least seven Ks in each of his last five performances. He’s running a K-rate of 27.8% and hasn’t thrown fewer than six strikeouts since April 20, so I’ll be on his torrid stretch to continue against a lineup that has been brutal against lefties all year.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cubs vs Cardinals odds
Cubs vs Cardinals live odds
Cubs vs Cardinals opening odds
- Run line: Chicago -1.5 | St. Louis +1.5
- Moneyline: Chicago -129 | St. Louis +119
- Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8
Cubs vs Cardinals spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Cubs have struggled lately, going 3-7 across their last 10 games. That’s coincided with a run to the Under as they are 3-7 O/U in that stretch.
- The Cubs have hit the Under in 25 of their last 39 games. They’ve also hit the First Five Innings (F5) Under in 19 of their last 29 games.
- The Cardinals have hit their Team Total Under in 25 of their last 41 games.
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Cubs vs Cardinals trend
The Cubs have cashed the Under in four straight games with Imanaga on the hill. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Cardinals
Cubs vs Cardinals game info
| Location: | Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MO |
| Date: | Friday, 5-24-2024 |
| First pitch: | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MARQ, BSMW |
| Cubs starting pitcher: | Shota Imanaga (5-0, 0.84 ERA) |
| Cardinals starting pitcher: | Miles Mikolas (3-5, 5.77 ERA) |
Cubs vs Cardinals latest injuries
Cubs vs Cardinals weather
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