The St. Louis Cardinals and Arizona Diamondbacks get a weekend series going Friday night along the banks of the Mississippi.
No matter what happens, one team will end a two-game losing streak. We like it to be St. Louis.
My Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals predictions break it down here as I bring you my MLB picks when the two teams meet on Friday, May 23.
Diamondbacks vs Cardinals prediction
My Diamondbacks vs Cardinals best bet: Cardinals First Five Innings moneyline (+110 at DraftKings)
Has St. Louis Cardinals veteran Miles Mikolas figured it out?
Perhaps.
He has rebounded after a shaky start to the beginning of the season, following a bad end to last year. The 36-year-old righty has allowed one earned run or less in four of his previous five starts. It’s given me confidence to back the Cardinals early today with my best bet, especially at a plus-money price.
Opposing Mikolas will be Zac Gallen. Gallen has been his usual strikeout self, but that’s where the regularities stop. His ERA currently sets a career-high, and that’s not just an empty statistic. The barrel rate, hard-hit rate, and expected ERA justify that number, which also sets career highs. Tonight, his weaknesses can be exploited by a Cardinals team quietly flying under the radar.
St. Louis may have lost a series to the Detroit Tigers earlier this week, scoring just one run in the finale, but the offense has largely not been an issue this season. That’s the story here.
The Cardinals now rank seventh in the majors in runs per game with plenty of power in the lineup. And that’s the biggest issue for Gallen. He’ll face a team that ranks just about average in hard-hit rate, but in May, that number has jumped to 8th in the majors. Moreover, a group with the second-lowest whiff rate in the sport may challenge his strength of being a heavy strikeout pitcher this evening.
The pitch mix is the final equation of this analysis. Gallen’s fastball stuff has been rather pedestrian, but the offspeed pitches are still borderline elite, with a run value in the 90th percentile. However, he can be challenged here with a strong lineup from root to bottom against offspeed pitches.
Conversely, I’m backing Mikolas in continuing his recent fine form. There’s a clear path for him. Although most of his underlying metrics were heavily influenced by a rough start, he’s still capable of elite players' ground ball-inducing starts. That should work well against the Arizona Diamondbacks, which ranks seventh among the majors in ground ball rates.
I liked St. Louis to win on Friday night, but I saw a bigger edge on the first five numbers. My projections made the fair price -108, and I would play this all the way to even money.
Diamondbacks vs Cardinals same-game parlay (SGP)
Cardinals F5 moneyline
Nolan Arenado Over 1.5 bases
It’s no surprise that Nolan Arenado has had so much success against Gallen. I expect it to continue this evening. He’s the best offspeed hitter on the Cardinals roster and, by any measure, one of the bats in the lineup. I’ll pair him with the best bet for a similar reason: he can target his barrel rate issues.
Diamondbacks vs Cardinals odds
Diamondbacks vs Cardinals live odds
Diamondbacks vs Cardinals opening odds
- Moneyline: Arizona -125 | St. Louis +105
- Run line: Arizona -1.5 (+130) | St. Louis +1.5 (-155)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Diamondbacks vs Cardinals trend
The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 24 of their last 36 games (+10.45 Units / 24% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals.
How to watch Diamondbacks vs Cardinals and game info
| Location | Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MO |
| Date | Friday, 5-23-2025 |
| First pitch | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | Apple TV+ |
| Diamondbacks starting pitcher | Zac Gallen (3-5, 5.14 ERA) |
| Cardinals starting pitcher | Miles Mikolas (3-2, 3.77 ERA) |
Diamondbacks vs Cardinals latest injuries
Diamondbacks vs Cardinals weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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