The San Diego Padres (27-21) head down south for a three-game series with the Atlanta Braves (24-25) beginning Friday night at Truist Park.
With the Padres on a six-game losing streak, I’m targeting a Chris Sale player prop with my best bet MLB picks and Padres vs. Braves predictions on Friday, May 23.
Padres vs Braves prediction
My Padres vs Braves best bet: Chris Sale Over 18.5 outs recorded (+140 at BetRivers)
Chris Sale followed up his 2024 NL Cy Young Award with a bumpy start to the new season, but he’s since settled in and found his groove.
The Atlanta Braves star has allowed no more than two earned runs in any of his last six starts. The lanky, lefty hurler is on a strikeout tear, notching 36 Ks across his last four starts alone.
He faces off with a San Diego Padres lineup with middling results against left-handed pitching, with an 82 wRC+ and .286 wOBA since April 20.
The Padres are not a patient group at the plate — their 3.79 pitches seen per plate appearance ranks seventh-lowest. They have the fourth-lowest walk rate (6.8%) against lefties since April 20.
Sale is averaging just 16.4 outs recorded per game, but keep in mind that his results have looked much different lately, and this is an advantageous matchup for him to record more outs than is typical.
After failing to record more than 15 outs in any of his first six starts, Sale has recorded 20+ outs in three of his last four outings.
The eight-time All-Star lasted at least seven full innings in 13 starts last season, so it’s clear that he can pitch deep into games. It’s more about whether he’s in good form, which he is now — and it helps that he’s pitching at home.
The books are offering substantial plus money on Sale lasting past the sixth inning, and I can’t pass that up.
He’s an elite pitcher in fine form, pitching at home against an impatient lineup that has middling results against lefties.
Padres vs Braves same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 7.5
Chris Sale 7+ strikeouts thrown
Chris Sale Over 18.5 outs recorded
Nick Pivetta gets the nod for San Diego. The veteran pitcher has been great, notching a 2.86 ERA through nine starts with his new squad.
The biggest change in his profile from other years is that he’s allowing a career-low 0.9 home runs per nine innings. Perpetually snakebit by the long ball in the past, Pivetta has an otherwise positive outlook and faces an Atlanta offense ranking 21st in wRC+ (99) since May 1.
With two good starting pitchers on the mound and neither offense lighting the world on fire, we’re targeting the full game Under.
Sale has recorded 7+ strikeouts in four straight games and in five of his last six. His swinging strike rate of 14.4% indicates that the impressive K numbers will continue.
Padres vs Braves odds
Padres vs Braves live odds
Padres vs Braves opening odds
- Moneyline: San Diego +150 | Atlanta -180
- Run line: San Diego +1.5 (-155) | Atlanta -1.5 (+130)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-115) | Under 7.5 (-105)
Padres vs Braves trend
The Braves have hit the Under in 12 of their last 19 games. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Braves.
How to watch Padres vs Braves and game info
| Location | Truist Park, Cumberland, GA |
| Date | Friday, 5-23-2025 |
| First pitch | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | PADRES.tv, FDSN |
| Padres starting pitcher | Nick Pivetta (5-2, 2.86 ERA) |
| Braves starting pitcher | Chris Sale (2-3, 3.62 ERA) |
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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