The Chicago Cubs are looking like a championship-caliber offense, and now they’ll be met with a huge test on Friday when they step to a Cy Young-hopeful in Hunter Greene.
With the Cincinnati Reds struggling mightily at the dish, my Cubs vs. Reds predictions will explain why the Cubs – even against one of the best pitchers in baseball – should be uniquely suited to do damage.
Without further ado, let’s hand out some MLB picks for Friday, May 23.
Cubs vs Reds prediction
My Cubs vs Reds best bet: Cubs moneyline (-115 at Caesars)
Hunter Greene has been lights out this season, racking up a 34.7% strikeout rate and 4.5% walk rate to stand as one of the least-generous arms in the game, and while he’s allowed mainly fly balls the contact against him has been consistently friendly.
The former No. 2 overall pick’s only real sore spot would be a team which can hit for power and wallop fly-ball pitchers, but normally those teams have issues striking out. Unfortunately, the Chicago Cubs are looking like one of those unique teams which can do the good stuff without many detractors.
Chicago’s arguably surpassed the Los Angeles Dodgers as the most-disciplined team in the league at the plate. It continues to get the ball in play with a low 19.7% strikeout rate in the last two weeks, and while its walk rate has fallen just a hair it remains very strong at 8.9%.
On top of this, the Cubs are still hitting for power with a .182 ISO and against fly-ball pitchers they rank fourth in OPS with a league-leading 118 runs scored.
That’s going to put a ton of pressure on Greene, who is already pitching at home in an unfriendly environment for a fly-baller, and while he’s done good work here in four starts he’s given up two homers already. There’s also the fact that he’s yet to face an imposing lineup in those outings, which have come against the Washington Nationals, Pittsburgh Pirates, Texas Rangers and San Francisco Giants.
I think Greene’s cruising for a slight bruising here against a complete Cubs offense, and on the other side of the coin the Cincinnati Reds stand just 25th in wRC+ to lefties which can’t be what you want to hear if you’re looking to bet on the home team.
Matthew Boyd isn’t just any lefty, either, he’s been a revelation for a Cubs staff which has been riddled with injury. His 2.98 ERA is backed by a solid 3.40 xERA and a solid strikeout to walk ratio, and while he’s a fellow fly-baller like Greene he’s done a much better job of limiting barrels even if he’s allowing runners more consistently.
This could be a game which comes down to one or two big blows, and I trust the Cubs to land them.
Cubs vs Reds same-game parlay (SGP)
Cubs moneyline
Matthew Boyd Over 5.5 strikeouts
Seiya Suzuki 2+ total bases
Boyd’s strikeout total is in an excellent place here, considering he’s now punched out six or more in four straight outings and has racked up eight in back-to-back turns through the rotation. Cincinnati is striking out nearly 27% of the time in the last two weeks, a dreadful number, and against left-handers things haven’t been all that better with a 24.6% punchout rate to sit near the bottom of the league. With the expectation that Boyd should comfortably work six innings at minimum, too, I like this number a lot.
It's also hard to stomach heading up against Greene in total bases, but Seiya Suzuki seems to be the guy who can land one of those big blows we were talking about earlier. He’s second on the team with 23 total bases against power pitchers like Greene and his .460 slugging percentage is the second-best of any regular. He’s also 6-for-13 against Greene in his career with a .407 xBA and .867 xSLG.
Cubs vs Reds odds
Cubs vs Reds live odds
Cubs vs Reds opening odds
- Moneyline: Chicago -120 | Cincinnati +102
- Run line: Chicago -1.5 (+140) | Cincinnati +1.5 (-172)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Cubs vs Reds trend
The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 22 games (+11.30 Units / 45% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Reds.
How to watch Cubs vs Reds and game info
| Location | Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, OH |
| Date | Friday, 5-23-2025 |
| First pitch | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | MARQ, FDSNOH |
| Cubs starting pitcher | Matthew Boyd (4-2, 2.98 ERA) |
| Reds starting pitcher | Hunter Greene (4-2, 2.36 ERA) |
Cubs vs Reds latest injuries
Cubs vs Reds weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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