Cubs vs Brewers Predictions, Picks, Odds: Offenses Primed For a Big Day

The Chicago Cubs and Milwaukee Brewers will wrap up a back-and-forth four-game set this afternoon following the Cubs’ three-run, ninth-inning comeback last night. All-Star Marcus Stroman will get the ball as a slight -105 dog but both he and Freddy Peralta haven’t been at their best of late.

With both bullpens gassed, having thrown more than 25 innings in the series, and missing some high-leverage arms, should bettors be shopping around for a low total in a game that could see a lot of late scoring?

Find out where my best bets lie in our MLB picks and predictions for Cubs vs. Brewers for Thursday, July 6.

Cubs vs Brewers odds

Cubs vs Brewers predictions

This total opened at 7.5 but early-morning bettors are starting to pile on the Over and drive this number to 8 across the board. The Over 7.5 is a strong play and is still available for those with the ability to shop around but the Over 8 would still be a play for me.

This series has seen a lot of action in the late innings as both bullpens have faltered heavily and have been overused. Combined, both sets of relievers have thrown 25 1/3 innings and surrendered 15 total runs. That means some high-leverage arms won’t be available on either side this afternoon.

Even if Marcus Stroman and Freddy Peralta can pitch to their numbers, this Over will be live all game due to the projected runs in the later innings, but the starters could also help out this best bet.

First, Stroman is a serious contender for the NL Cy Young but has allowed 11 runs over his last two starts He dealt with a blister two starts ago, is seeing a drop in spin rate over his last three, and is already at 107 2/3 innings this year after logging a 138-inning workload in 2022.

Peralta has some concerns, too. He owns a 5.89 ERA over his last nine starts and has a 15.7% HR/FB rate, which is well above his career numbers. He also struggles with free passes and has walked multiple batters in 12 of his 16 starts. He’s faced some of the worst offenses over his last four starts in Pittsburgh (twice), Oakland, and Cleveland but posted a 5.06 ERA across those outings.

There is a worry that we see a lazy afternoon getaway game from both sides, but home runs are a threat and the bullpens are in disarray. Get on this Over 7.5 early but I’d still take the Over 8 at -110 or better.

My best bet: Over 7.5 (-125 at Betway)

Cubs vs Brewers same-game parlay

Over 7.5 (-135)

Willy Adames Over 1.5 total bases (+150)

Marcus Stroman Under 17.5 outs recorded (+105)

+550 at bet365

I'm not getting true odds here but there is a strong correlation between all three plays and the difference between +770 and +550 isn't that big of a multiplier with how related these three plays are.

I like runs a lot, especially late with the shape of both bullpens and each starter having some issues. Stroman is in the middle of his worst two-game stretch of the season and with the All-Star break looming, another poor performance wouldn't surprise me considering some spin rate issues and the blister he dealt with two starts ago. 

Adames is hitting .308 over his last six games, homered last night, and is 8-for-15 lifetime vs. Stroman with two home runs.   

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Cubs vs Brewers moneyline and Over/Under analysis

The final match of a four-game set is projected to be another tight game as this afternoon’s contest opened as a pick ‘em but has moved five points as the home side Brewers sit as slight -115 favorites.

All three games of the series have been decided by two or fewer runs and all three matches were won in the late innings. Both bullpens have been overworked and the relievers in this series have allowed 15 combined runs over 25-plus innings. Both teams will be without key high-leverage arms including Milwaukee closer Devin Williams, who took the loss last night.

Combine that with a pair of starters who come into tonight in poor form with Stroman allowing 11 runs over his last two starts and Peralta with a 5.89 ERA over his last nine starts, runs could be coming in the open-roofed environment of American Family Field.

With the uncertainty in the bullpens, I’m off the moneyline but happy to hop on the Over 7.5 which is something that is getting steamed. 

Milwaukee is a much better offense vs. right-handed pitching and Stroman was dealing with a blister two starts ago, has a decent drop in his overall spin rate, and is just 30 innings shy of his total workload from last season. 

Peralta is also a flyball pitcher who has given up plenty of long balls and walks this year but it will be the bullpen that will get this Over across the line as these aren’t strong stables to begin with, and both sides are missing key arms.

Trend to know

The Over is 5-1 in the Brewers’ last six overall. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Brewers

Cubs vs Brewers game info

Starting pitchers

Marcus Stroman (9-6, 2:76 ERA): Stroman is heading to the All-Star Game after 18 starts and a 92:37 K/BB rate over 107-plus innings with just five home runs. He has been a little off his mark of late with 11 earned runs over his last two starts (9 IP) and dealt with a blister on his finger two starts ago. The Cubs are 10-8 SU when Stroman starts and THE BAT projects 94 pitches, 17 outs, 5.2 strikeouts, and 2.44 earned runs.  

Freddy Peralta (5-7, 4.67 ERA): Peralta is making his 17th start of the season and carries a 97:35 K/BB rate over 86-plus innings with 15 home runs. He’s been better at home with a 3.75 ERA but he also owns a 5.06 ERA over his last four starts which have come against some of the worst offenses in baseball (CLE, PIT x2, and OAK). The Brewers are 7-9 SU when the flyball pitcher starts and THE BAT projects 104 pitches, 18.5 outs, 7.55 strikeouts, and 2.49 earned runs.  

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