The Chicago Cubs and Milwaukee Brewers face off in a Fourth of July clash on Tuesday afternoon.
The Brewers beat the Cubbies last night in the opener of this four-game set as they look to keep pace with the Reds atop the NL Central. Meanwhile, the Cubs have gone 1-7 in their last eight and have fallen seven games behind the Brewers in the division.
MLB odds opened with the Brewers as -125 home favorites with the Over/Under at 9.5. Here are my best free Cubs vs. Brewers MLB picks and predictions for July 4.
Looking for today's game? Check out our Cubs vs. Brewers picks for Wednesday, July 5.
Cubs vs Brewers odds
Cubs vs Brewers predictions
These teams combined for 14 runs last night but considering the lack of offensive production from both teams over the course of the season and the solid starters on either side, the total looks a tad too high.
The Milwaukee Brewers are 27th in the majors with an OPS of .682 and while the Chicago Cubs are a more respectable 15th in OPS (.724), that number has plummeted to .690 since the start of May.
The Statcast analytics aren't favorable to these lineups either. Both squads are in the Bottom 10 in hard-hit rate and average exit velocity and the Brewers rank 15th in barrel rate while the Cubs are 20th.
The Cubs are sending Kyle Hendricks to the hill today while the Brewers are responding with Wade Miley. Miley hit the IL with a lat injury in mid-May and since returning to the rotation on June 17, has pitched to a 1.20 ERA with an OBA of .160 across three starts.
Meanwhile, Hendricks has a 2.81 ERA with a 0.96 WHIP and an OBA of .201 in seven starts this year.
While neither of these veteran hurlers makes many batters miss, they also tend to induce soft contact. Miley is in the Top 20th percentile in hard-hit rate while sitting in the Top 25th percentile in average exit velocity while Hendricks is in the Top 20th percentile in both categories as well.
My best bet: Under 9.5 (-105 at SportsInteraction)
Cubs vs Brewers same-game parlay
Under 9.5 (-115)
Kyle Hendricks Under 1.5 walks issued (+100)
Willy Adames Under 1.5 total bases (-160)
Hendricks might not strike out many batters but he also doesn't give out many free passes either. He sits in the Top 10th percentile of all pitchers in walk rate (5.4%) and that number is almost exactly his career walk rate of 5.5%. He's stayed under this number in four of his last five starts.
Adames picked up two hits last night but has struggled for most of the season. The shortstop is batting .206 on the year and has a pathetic slugging percentage of .343 since the start of May. He's also gone just 2-for-14 at the plate against Hendricks in his career.
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Cubs vs Brewers moneyline and Over/Under analysis
This line hit the board with the Brewers as slim -125 home favorites and hasn't seen much movement.
The Brewers beat the Cubs 8-6 last night and have won seven of their last nine. The Cubs are tumbling down the standings after losing seven of their previous eight contests. They have gone just 8-15 as away underdogs this season for a win percentage of 34.8%.
The total opened at 9 and has ticked up to 9.5, albeit slightly juiced towards the Under at most books. Miley's last five starts have seen totals between 7.5 and 8.5.
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Trend to know
The Under is 12-4-1 in the Cubs' last 17 games on the road while going 19-6-1 in the Brewers' last 26 home games with the total set between 9 and 10.5. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Brewers
Cubs vs Brewers game info
| Location: | American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI |
| Date: | Tuesday, July 4, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 4:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Wisconsin, Marquee Sports Network |
Starting pitchers
Kyle Hendricks (3-3, 2.81 ERA): Hendricks began the season on the IL due to a shoulder injury that cut short his 2022 campaign. He's been effective since returning although his expected ERA of 4.19 is significantly higher than his actual ERA. Hendricks was Chicago's most reliable starter from 2016 to 2020 but he struggled in his last two seasons, pitching to a 4.78 ERA in 48 starts.
Wade Miley (5-2, 3.02 ERA): The lefty started the season strong before having a couple of poor outings in May which may have been due to a lat strain that sent him to the IL. He's looked sharp since returning to the rotation a few weeks ago, allowing just eight hits and two runs in 15 innings against the Mets, Guardians, and Pirates. Miley is 3-0 with a 2.40 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP in five starts against the Cubs since 2021.
