The Chicago Cubs and Milwaukee Brewers will continue their close, high-scoring series tonight in the third installment of a four-game set that has seen the NL Central teams split the opening two games.
The MLB odds see the Cubs sit at -150 favorites thanks to a starting pitching advantage (Justin Steele vs. Adrian Houser) but should bettors be backing the home side at plus money thanks to a stable starter in Houser and a shorter leash on Steele?
Find out where my best bets lie in our MLB picks and predictions for Cubs vs. Brewers for Wednesday, July 5.
Looking for today's game? Check out our Cubs vs. Brewers picks for Thursday, July 6.
Cubs vs Brewers odds
Cubs vs Brewers predictions
Justin Steele is enjoying one hell of a mid-season campaign as he enters tonight with a sub-2.50 ERA and currently is the No.6 betting favorite for NL Cy Young at bet365. However, pitching at this rate continuously could prove troublesome for a left-hander that most places projected as a 3.60-4.20 ERA pitcher this year. That yields some value on his Under 17.5 outs today at a very attractive +150.
He isn’t a strikeout-heavy pitcher (less-than-K/inning rate this season) which could favor the K-heavy Milwaukee Brewers lineup. He’s been fairly lucky with the home-run ball thanks to a HR/FB rate that is seven points lower than his career MLB average.
Despite pitching above his projections, the Chicago Cubs lefty is not a long-leashed pitcher and needs a lot of things to go right to get into the seventh inning. He averages 84 pitches per start and has recorded 18 or more outs in just two of his last five starts.
He’s also pitching on four days of rest where he owns a WHIP 0.423 points higher than when he pitches on five days of rest and is coming off his highest pitch count (96 pitches) in 11 starts. There is a chance he pitches well and still hits the plus-money Under as his leash is plenty short.
The Brewers are not a good left-handed-hitting team but that is priced into this Under 17.5 and they’ve beaten the last two lefties they’ve seen in Drew Smyly and Rich Hill. They were a dog in both of those games.
It’s hard not to take this Under 17.5 outs at +150 when Steele could be down before 90 pitches — something he’s seen happen in nine of his 15 starts this season. THE BAT is projecting 17.4 outs which gives this slightly better than 50/50 odds at a +150 price tag.
My best bet: Justin Steele Under 17.5 outs (+150 at bet365)
Cubs vs Brewers same-game parlay
Steele Under 17.5 outs (+150)
Houser Over 15.5 outs (-120)
Adames Over 1.5 total bases (+150)
Both pitchers project to win their total out props by more than 50% as Steele projects for 17.4 outs and Adrian Houser for 17.0. Steele is a short-leashed pitcher who needs a lot to go right for 18 outs while Houser should have a mid-90 pitch count and went 18 outs in his return to the rotation last week.
Adames projects to have the most total bases of the Brewers, per THE BAT, at 1.70. He's hitting third in the lineup, should get 4-plus plate appearances, and has at least two bases in five straight games. He's also seen Steele 16 times and is hitting .250 vs. the lefty.
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Cubs vs Brewers moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The first two games of this series have closed within 10 points of a pick ‘em which the two clubs split after Milwaukee’s 7-6 extra-inning loss yesterday. Milwaukee erased a four-run eighth-inning deficit before falling in the 10th.
Today, the home side opened as a sizeable +130 dog and hasn’t seen much movement on the ML. Milwaukee is a notoriously bad team vs. left-handed pitching but has beaten the last two southpaws they faced which were both as a dog and in the last week.
When backing a dog, you can always do worse than Adrian Houser who is a career 3.98 ERA pitcher and should have a mid-90 pitch count after an 18-out, two-run performance in his last start vs. the Mets.
The Brewers are the best home team (23-19 SU) in the NL Central and the Cubs are getting a lot of respect for a losing team that is 3-7 SU in its last 10 and nearly blew a four-run lead yesterday.
Both bullpens have gotten a lot of work in this series so the later frames could go either way giving more value to the dog — especially with Steele’s shorter leash.
Yesterday’s Over saw plenty of handle but a lot of that had to do with the hitting environment as the roof was open and it was sweltering 90 degrees. Today, however, rain is projected which likely means the lid is on American Family Field which would aid the Under with a more moderate temperature. Neither team has been profitable to the Over this season.
This total opened at 8.5 and briefly hit 9 before bettors drove it back to 8.5. It seems the books took some decent action on the Under 9 which has me thinking the Under is the right side today but with questions in both bullpens, perhaps the F5 Under 4.5 is the better route at -105 or better.
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Trend to know
The Brewers are 6-0 in their last six games following a loss. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Brewers
Cubs vs Brewers game info
| Location: | American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI |
| Date: | Wednesday, July 5, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Marquee Sports Network, Bally Sports Network |
Starting pitchers
Justin Steele (9-2, 2.43 ERA): Steele has made 15 starts for the Cubbies and currently finds himself as the No.6 betting favorite to win the NL Cy Young at +1,500 (bet365). He carries a 76:19 K/BB rate over 85 1/3 innings, has allowed just three home runs, and batters are hitting just .221 vs. the lefty (.197 over the last 28 days). He’s allowed one home run over his last 12 starts and more than two earned runs once over his last six turns. The Cubs are 9-6 SU when he starts and THE BAT projects 96 pitches, 17.6 outs, 5.59 strikeouts, and 2.42 earned runs.
Adrian Houser (3-2, 3.88 ERA): Houser is making his second start since being moved back to the rotation. He went 89 pitches and 18 outs vs the Mets at Citi Field in his previous start but doesn’t miss many bats with a 7% swinging-strike rate. He has a 30:14 K/BB rate over 46-plus innings with five homers — two coming in his last start. He’s a groundball pitcher with a sub-4.00 career ERA and was a +170 winner in his last start vs. Max Scherzer. The Brewers are 5-3 SU when he starts and THE BAT projects 97 pitches, 17 outs, 3.76 strikeouts, and 3.06 earned runs.
