The fourth and final game of this NL Central series gets underway Sunday with the third-place Chicago Cubs hosting the fourth-place St. Louis Cardinals.
St. Louis won the first game of this series 7-2 before dropping each of the last two by a combined score of 12-9.
Will the Cubs take care of business once again, or can the Cardinals even up the series? Find out in our free MLB betting picks for Cardinals vs. Cubs below.
Cardinals vs Cubs odds
Cardinals vs Cubs predictions
Left-hander Jordan Montgomery is slated to take the mound for the St. Louis Cardinals in this matchup, and he should be a good candidate to fade. Through 19 starts this season, Montgomery is 6-7 with a 3.14 ERA and 1.23 WHIP.
Those certainly aren't the worst surface-level stats in the world, but his underlying metrics are more concerning. Currently, Montgomery ranks in the 49th percentile or lower in xERA/xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, and Barrel%.
Specifically, we're going to fade the left-hander in the strikeout department. Entering Saturday, he ranks in the 41st percentile or lower in both K% and Whiff%.
Currently, you can find his strikeout prop at 5.5 at PointsBet. Montgomery has recorded five or fewer strikeouts in each of his past two starts.
While the Chicago Cubs are a very average team at the dish, there's reason to believe they can avoid the punchout against Montgomery. Through 116 career plate appearances against the left-hander, this current Chicago lineup possesses a mere 19 K%.
Montgomery has failed to surpass six strikeouts in four of his five career starts against the Cubs.
My best bet: Jordan Montgomery Under 5.5 strikeouts (-140)
Cardinals vs Cubs same-game parlay
Jordan Montgomery Under 5.5 strikeouts (-130)
Over 9.5 (-110)
Cardinals ML (-140)
This same-game parlay builds upon each other. We already covered the first leg in the best bet section above, but let's look at the other two.
Montgomery should once again be a good fade candidate, and while the Cubs’ lineup has been underwhelming, it still ranks right around the league average in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, SLG, OPS, and home runs. Conversely, the Cardinals’ lineup has performed slightly better across the board.
Jameson Taillon is slated to take the mound for Chicago and is even worse than Montgomery. Through 16 starts, the right-hander is 3-6 with a 6.05 ERA and 1.40 WHIP.
Taillon’s underlying metrics also fail to measure up to Montgomery’s across the board, and there should be little optimism of him turning things around anytime soon. With two poor pitchers and two average lineups, we could see a 6-4 or 7-3 Cardinals win on Sunday.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Cardinals vs Cubs moneyline and Over/Under analysis
St. Louis opened as –135 favorites and remained at that price at the time of writing. I expect the line to move in the Cardinals’ favor, given the better lineup and starting pitcher.
With that said, Montgomery’s underlying metrics suggest regression is looming, although they're still better than Taillon’s. That brings us to the total, which opened at 9 and quickly moved to 9.5.
I think the juice will continue to move toward the Over, although it would be shocking if it hits double-digits. With that said, the Over is the play to make as long as it stays below 10.
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Trend to know
Montgomery has recorded five or fewer strikeouts in four of his five career starts against Chicago. Find more MLB betting trends for Cardinals vs. Cubs
Cardinals vs Cubs game info
| Location: | Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date: | Sunday, July 23, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 2:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSMW, MARQ |
Starting pitchers
Jordan Montgomery (6-7, 3.14 ERA): Montgomery has put together a strong campaign in his first full season with St. Louis. However, his underlying metrics suggest that regression is imminent, given that he ranks in the 49th percentile or lower in xERA/xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, and Barrel%. Certainly not a strikeout savant, the left-hander also ranks in the 41st percentile or lower in both K% and Whiff%.
Jameson Taillon (3-6, 6.05 ERA): Taillon goes against his former Yankees teammate in this contest. The former second-overall draft pick has never quite performed up to those lofty draft expectations and is now undergoing the worst season of his professional career. His underlying metrics are even worse than Montgomery’s, ranking in the 14th percentile or lower in xERA/xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, and Barrel%.
