A new week of MLB action opens with a lighter night on the diamond. Despite just nine games on the schedule, we've found plenty of value in MLB player props markets on Monday, June 23.
Today, my favorites include a couple of National League lefty sluggers with underrated matchups as Juan Soto faces Spencer Schwellenbach and Kyle Tucker digs in against Matthew Liberatore.
Best MLB player props today
Soto Over 1.5 TBs (+130)
Tucker Over 0.5 RBIs (+165)
Parker Under 16.5 outs (-110)
MLB props for June 23
Juan Soto Over 1.5 total bases (+130 at Caesars)
It's been a tough start to Juan Soto’s tenure with the New York Mets, but he’s looked much more like his old self lately. Soto is hitting .328 with a 1.181 OPS, seven home runs, and 14 RBIs over 20 June games, and he’ll face Atlanta Braves starter Spencer Schwellenbach for the second time in less than a week.
Schwellenbach has been solid, pitching to a 3.63 expected ERA, but he has been giving up his fair share of contact. The right-hander ranks in the 26th percentile in expected batting average, the 57th in average exit velocity, and the 40th in hard-hit rate.
And Soto sure hit Schwellenbach hard when they last met, taking him deep while going 2-for-4 with a walk.
Soto has done plenty of damage against right-handers, holding an .867 OPS against them in 2025, and we're getting a good price on him going Over his total bases prop.
Kyle Tucker Over 0.5 RBIs (+165 at Caesars)
Kyle Tucker keeps raking, and as long as sportsbooks keep giving us value when it comes to his RBI prop, our MLB picks will keep betting it.
The Chicago Cubs star outfielder has been the anchor to this lineup all season and ranks in the 88th percentile in expected batting average and the 96th in expected slugging with 15 home runs and 46 RBI.
He is also on another heater, hitting .417 with a 1.292 OPS over his last seven games. He’s also driven in three runs in his last two games, and the odds are favorable for him to drive in another when he steps in against Matthew Liberatore of the St. Louis Cardinals.
Liberatore is having a solid season, ranking in the 61st percentile in expected ERA, but he’s still getting hit hard, ranking in the 31st percentile in xBA, the 11th in average exit velocity, and the 19th in hard-hit rate.
And don’t worry about the lefty splits edge Liberatore normally would have. Tucker has better numbers against southpaws, getting to them for a .292 batting average and a .944 OPS.
Mitchell Parker Under 16.5 Outs (-110 at Caesars)
It could be a long night for Washington Nationals starter Mitchell Parker. Or, well, a short night in baseball terms, as he takes the mound against the San Diego Padres tonight.
This season has been a struggle for the 25-year-old left-hander, who ranks in the 15th percentile or worse in expected ERA, expected batting average, and strikeout rate.
He also ranks in the ninth percentile in average exit velocity and fourth in hard-hit percentage. Opponents are squaring him up and consistently doing damage.
And while San Diego has been inconsistent when it comes to scoring this season, this isn’t exactly an easy lineup to navigate with the likes of Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado. And they’ve been a little better lately, ranking 11th in batting average and 16th in OPS over the last two weeks.
Either way, this lineup is good enough to take advantage of Parker. They are also one of the best teams in the majors when it comes to strikeout-to-walk ratio, and can build up a starter's pitch count quickly.
That’s not great for a guy who averages just 86.7 pitches per start.
Parker’s topped 16.5 outs just twice in his last 10 starts. The teams he did that against were the light-hitting Texas Rangers and the lowly Colorado Rockies.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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