The New York Yankees and Cincinnati Reds kick off a series in Ohio tonight.
The Reds are surging and will be sending one of their promising young pitchers to the mound this evening. My Reds vs. Yankees predictions see value in his strikeout total.
Let's break it down as I bring you my MLB picks for Monday, June 23.
Yankees vs Reds prediction
My Yankees vs Reds best bet: Nick Lodolo Over 5.5 strikeouts (+105 at Caesars)
The New York Yankees have been mired in a rough patch, and unless you've been completely living under a rock, you've likely heard about their recent woes.
The Bronx Bombers have struggled mightily, though they managed to take the weekend series against the faltering Orioles with consecutive wins heading into this game. Still, their broader performance paints a grim picture: a 3-7 record over their last 10 games, with all 10 staying Under the total, underscoring their offensive struggles. The most glaring issue during this skid? Strikeouts. That's where we're focusing our best bet.
The product of a fully healthy Yankees lineup has meant more strikeout-prone players in the lineup. This is most relevant for Giancarlo Stanton. The DH was inserted back into the lineup over a week ago and has subsequently seen his whiff-heavy approach show up in the last two games, resulting in five strikeouts. As a collective, though, the Yankees have struggled in the strikeout department when facing lefties like the one they'll see in Nick Lodolo tonight.
In June, New York's strikeout rate crept up to the eighth-highest when facing southpaws at just over 25%. Using a basic probability calculator with a projected pitch count of right around 94 (a number Lodolo has hit in over 70% of his starts) along with that strikeout rate, we put the fair price of Lodolo exceeding five strikeouts right around -118.
That's a significant edge against our number and provides a good baseline. However, there are more specific elements about this matchup that we like beyond just a raw projection.
Lodolo's strikeout rate has dropped this season to a career-low of 21%, but with no major noticeable changes in his mechanics, I believe there will be some regression to his career norms of around 25%. There’s an inherent risk in this line of thinking, but it’s calculated with three years of data screaming one thing: he’s a bigger strikeout thrower than what he’s shown this year so far.
Thus, I'll be targeting him more often in solid matchups. This one stands out because of how good his curveball has been this season, producing a whiff rate of 37%. That's going to cause a New York lineup that will have up to five players in it with an above-average strikeout rate against the curveball on the season.
As a final feather in our cap, tonight's umpire profile leans slightly in favor of called strikes on the edge, which benefits a command-lefty like Lodolo, who paints the corners. Given the converging dynamics of tonight's matchup and the environment paired with my projection, this is easily my favorite bet on the board.
Caesars QuickPick: Our Yankees vs Reds same-game parlay (SGP)
Nick Lodolo Over 5.5 strikeouts
Allan Winans Over 6.5 strikeouts
Will Benson to hit a home run
With a lot of high variance likely among the Yankees' starting pitchers, we're going for a massive longshot parlay.
Allan Winans makes his season debut for the Yankees today after moving from the Braves this offseason. His short career so far has been marked by inconsistencies. Throughout a handful of starts in his rookie season, he averaged 8.6 strikeouts. Yet in 2024, he was shelled in just two starts before being sent down to the minors.
He's back after producing an electric 15-strikeout per nine innings mark in his latest stint in the minors. I'm inclined to take a shot on him at an alternate number against a very strikeout-prone team. I found 7+ to be the most EV among those options.
We're finishing things up with Will Benson to go yard. Benson will benefit against the expected pitching arsenal. Winans leans on the changeup heavily, and no starter for the Cincinnati Reds has hit that pitch harder this season than Benson. Add in temperatures in the 90s along with his 88th percentile home run rating by the BAT X, and the appeal increases.
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Yankees vs Reds odds
Yankees vs Reds live odds
Yankees vs Reds opening odds
- Moneyline: New York -125 | Cincinnati +105
- Run line: New York -1.5 (+120) | Cincinnati +1.5 (-144)
- Over/Under: Over 10 | Under 10
Odds courtesy of Caesars.
Yankees vs Reds trend
The Reds have cashed the moneyline in 10 of their last 15 games for +6.15 units and a 38% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Reds.
How to watch Yankees vs Reds and game info
| Location | Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, OH |
| Date | Monday, 6-23-2025 |
| First pitch | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | YES, FDSN |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Allan Winans (0-0, 0.00 ERA) |
| Reds starting pitcher | Nick Lodolo (5-5, 3.71 ERA) |
Yankees vs Reds latest injuries
Yankees vs Reds weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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