Friday afternoon serves up a heated NL Central battle with the third-place Cincinnati Reds hosting the first-place Milwaukee Brewers.
This contest is the first installment of a four-game series.
Will the Reds defend their home diamond, or can the Brewers take care of business as road favorites? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Brewers vs. Reds on June 2.
Brewers vs Reds odds
Brewers vs Reds predictions
Slated to take the mound for the Cincinnati Reds is left-hander Brandon Williamson, who is off to a tough start in his career, albeit in a very small sample size. Through 14 and 1/3 innings pitched, he possesses a 5.02 ERA and 1.47 WHIP.
However, he could still be a good candidate to back in the strikeout department. The rookie hurler out of TCU currently possesses a 19 K% and 24.8 Whiff%.
Those aren’t the strongest metrics in the world, but you don’t need to be Jacob DeGrom to have a successful outing against this fade-worthy Milwaukee Brewers lineup. Entering this matchup, Milwaukee ranks in the Bottom 10 in the league in runs per game, hits per game, BA, SLG, and OPS.
Boasting a five-pitch arsenal, Williamson routinely pumps his fastball and cutter to set up his slider and changeup, two pitches which each already boast a Whiff% north of 26%. These pitches should work well against the Brewers, a strikeout-prone team.
When facing left-handed pitching this season, Milwaukee ranks last in the league in K%. Looking at Friday’s projected starting lineup, seven of the nine hitters possess a K% north of 22% this year.
These strikeout woes could continue against Williamson, a guy that no one in this lineup has seen on the mound prior to Friday’s game.
My best bet: Brandon Williamson Over 5.5 strikeouts (+115)
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Brewers vs Reds moneyline analysis
I would lean toward the Reds’ moneyline in this contest, but am not confident enough to pull the trigger. The main reason for this sentiment is due to right-hander Corbin Burnes taking the mound for Milwaukee.
The former Cy Young winner is putting together another strong campaign. Currently, Burnes ranks in the 60th percentile or higher in HardHit%, xERA/xwOBA, xBA, xSLG and Barrel%.
In his career against Cincinatti, Burnes boasts a 2.53 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. Outside of his start against Houston, the right-hander has been brilliant once again this year.
Brewers vs Reds Over/Under analysis
I would also lean towards the Under in this contest, but do not feel confident one way or the other. Despite Williamson’s solid strikeout ability, the other aspects of his pitching are not strong.
While it’s a small sample size, Williamson ranks in the 35th percentile or lower in fastball velocity, fastball spin and extension. His strengths come in the off-speed pitches he offers when ahead in the count, but prior to that, he is fade-worthy on the mound.
Williamson should be able to get away with these inadequacies against a terrible Milwaukee lineup, but because of this factor, I want to stay away from the total.
Brewers vs Reds game info
| Location: | Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, OH |
| Date: | Friday, June 2, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 5:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Apple TV+ |
Starting pitchers
Corbin Burnes (4-4, 3.68 ERA): Burnes’ underwhelming surface-level stats are not indicative of how his talent level is on the mound. Currently, Burnes ranks in the 60th percentile or higher in HH%, xERA/xwOBA, xBA, xSLG and Barrel%. The former Cy Young winner is still an elite option on the mound, and going against the Reds’ poor lineup should not present any challenges.
Brandon Williamson (0-0, 5.02 ERA): It hasn’t been a great start to the left-hander's career, posting a 5.02 ERA and 1.47 WHIP through three starts. However, the silver lining is in the strikeout department. Boasting a five-pitch arsenal, Williamson routinely pumps his fastball and cutter to set up his slider and changeup, two pitches which each already boast a whiff percentage north of 26%. These pitches should work well against the Brewers, a strikeout-prone team.
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Trend to know
The Brewers are 0-5 in their last five games during the opening contest of a series. Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Reds
