We're back from a long holiday weekend with a nice MLB betting slate, and we have you covered with our favorite MLB player props.
Two pitchers exceeding their strikeout totals highlight today's picks.
Best MLB player props today
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Janson Junk o4.5 strikeouts (+116) -
Jacob deGrom o6.5 strikeouts (-154) -
Gavin Sheets to hit a HR (+400)
Our 3 best MLB player props for Monday, July 7
Janson Junk Over 4.5 strikeouts (+116 at Caesars)
Only one team in the National League has struck out more than the Cincinnati Reds over the last ten games — that team is the lowly Pittsburgh Pirates. Until this changes, I will continue to bet on the opposing pitchers' strikeouts against them. Today, not only do we have those recent trends supporting this play, but we also have particular aspects of this matchup that support and are showing value on this play at anything +100 or better.
Janson Junk has a few factors working against him that have kept this number at a plus-money price point; he's due for some negative regression, and he's a chase-reliant pitcher going against a team that doesn't chase much. That said, I'm not sold, it's going to matter a lot because of the arsenal Junk throws. Junk gets an above-average amount of swing-and-miss on both the slider and sweeper. This Reds lineup will have seven players in it with an above-average strikeout rate against at least one of those pitches. That alone is enough for me to add him to my MLB picks and grab this price.
- Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: FDSNFL, FDSNOH
Jacob deGrom Over 6.5 strikeouts (-154 at Caesars)
We'll continue our theme of fading free-swinging teams, this time with the Los Angeles Angels.
Jacob deGrom has looked mostly like himself over his last two starts, with 14 strikeouts and two combined earned runs over 13 innings.
As usual, he's gotten his fair share of outs by getting extended chases outside the zone and thus lots of swings-and-misses. There's no team in baseball making less contact on pitches outside the zone than the Angels at an astounding 47.5 mark. In addition to that, it's a lineup that has five players with not only above-average strikeout rates but woefully so when facing the slider. That's the primary put-out pitch for the future Hall of Famer. This one feels straightforward, so as long as we get the usual workload from deGrom.
- Time: 9:38 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: RSN, FDSNW
Gavin Sheets to hit a home run (+400 at Caesars)
Gavin Sheets is live tonight to go yard. There's a ton in his favor, and I'd play this to +330.
Arizona Diamondbacks right-hander Zac Gallen has had a variety of issues this season, and there's not much to look forward to or expect in terms of positive regression. What's most notable in his struggles are a barrel rate and hard-hit rate that both set in the bottom 10th percentile in baseball. It's no wonder he's given up the fifth most home runs per nine innings amongst qualified starting pitchers at 1.7.
On the surface, that makes him a target for deep balls; you refine that to Sheets by looking at the pitching arsenal mix he'll face.
Gallen has thrown his fastball or knuckle curve over 70% of the time this season. That number may be heading up, as the other two pitches in his arsenal are producing unfavorable results. That's music to the ears of Sheets, who ranks first or second in hard-hit rate, expected batting average, and expected slugging percentage amongst Padres players against those two pitches. He'll be in a great position to exploit Gallen for as long as he's in the game.
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: ARID, SDPA
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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