Brewers vs Mets Picks and Predictions: Milwaukee Matches Up Well Against Bassitt

The Mets and the Brewers get set for a three-game series in New York beginning on Tuesday. There aren't many teams that have had a better start to the season than New York. Although the defending champion Braves have surged, the Mets still have maintained a five-game lead over them in the NL East. 

It seems reasonably safe to say that the Brewers have gotten off to a slow start. Yes, they are only one game out of first place in the NL Central, but they've been downright bad as of late. Milwaukee has lost eight of its last 10 and that has included back-to-back series losses to the Phillies and the dreadful Nationals.

They'll be looking at this one with a keen eye to get back on track. To see which side we'll be backing tonight, read our free MLB betting picks and predictions for Mets vs. Brewers on Tuesday, June 14. 

Brewers vs Mets odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The odds for this one were released late last night. The Mets opened up as sizable favorites with -150 across the board. Since then, they've taken the money. New York is dropped to -160 in most spots and Milwaukee is around +140. The total opened at 7.5 and has since risen to 8.0.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Brewers vs Mets predictions

• Prediction: Brewers ML (+140)
• Prediction: Brewers TT Over 3.5 (-105)
• Best bet: Adams Over 1.5 TB (+110)

Picks made on 6/14/2022 at 3:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Brewers vs Mets game info

• Location: Citi Field, Queens, NY
• Date: Tuesday, June 14, 2022
• First pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
• TV: SNY

Brewers vs Mets betting preview

Starting pitchers

Adrian Houser (3-6, 3.92 ERA): Houser generally isn't particularly dominant in his starts, but he does an excellent job of managing games. Two of his last three starts have been rocky, but before then, he had given up just four earned runs through three deep starts. His most significant issue is simply that he pitches to contact too much. As a result, his K rate, whiff rate, and xBA are all in the dumps. Houser relies heavily on his sinker and fastball as they make up over 70% of his pitching repertoire.

Chris Bassitt (4-4, 4.35 ERA): It's been a bit of an uneven start to the year for Bassitt. He dominated at the beginning of the season, going through the month of April with a 2.20 ERA in four starts. The right-hander then regressed the following month as his ERA rose shot up to where it is now, becoming a routine victim of the longball. 

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Brewers: Luis Urias (2B), Kolten Wong (3B).
Mets: No key injuries to report.
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Brewers are 20-8 in the last 28 meetings. Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Mets

Brewers vs Mets picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

The Mets are a bit of an antithesis of today's modern baseball, as they don't hit the ball hard and don't strike out many people. As a result, we're rolling the Brewers today.

Given their recent struggles, it's not precisely a proposition I'm excited about, but I believe there's a decent pitching advantage to be had here. Houser vs. the Mets bats feels like mostly a wash. I don't expect him to dominate the game by any stretch, but he will not give up a ton of contact. There's no "edge" for him here, but there's also no advantage for the Mets batters.

There is one for Brewers hitters, however. Looking back at what Bassitt has done this season, you'll see one common theme. Teams that barrel the ball up against him have had success against them. 

The Brewers quietly have hit the fifth-most home runs in baseball over the last 10 games and also rank fifth in baseball in barrel rate. That seems like a match made in heaven to attack Bassitt.

The public is grabbing the Mets because they are hot and the Brewers are not. It makes sense; it's why they've garnered over 70% of the bets according to the Covers consensus page. The advantage the Brewers bats have against the Mets seems to be discounted here. My projections see this game as close to a coin-flip as possible, and that makes it an easy decision to grab the Brewers at plus money.

Prediction: Brewers moneyline (+140 at DraftKings)

Over/Under analysis

If we sell out on an angle, we may as well go all in. I'm just not sold on Bassitt quite yet, and he's getting a premium pitcher's price.

The conditions in Citi Field will also be favorable for runs, particularly for the longball. It's expected to be a hot and humid night with the winds flowing out. My projections have the Brewers going Over this posted total more than 65% of the time. That's an easy edge when I'm getting close to +100 on this play.

The Brewers are averaging over four runs per game on the road this season. They've managed that feat even while being sluggish at times. We're just asking them to do what they've done all season, one more time. That seems pretty likely given the advantages they already have in their favor tonight.

Prediction: Brewers team total Over 3.5 (-105 at FanDuel)

Best bet

Let's fade Bassitt's poor barrel rate one last time with our best bet. Brewers' shortstop Willy Adames has the best barrel rate on the Brewers' entire team, and despite a lackluster .200 batting average, owns an above-average OPS+ of 110.

Not only that, but he thrives against pitchers that use the fastball as a go-to pitch. He'll see plenty of those against Bassitt.

Pick: Willy Adames Over 1.5 total bases (+110 at FanDuel)

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