Brewers vs Dodgers Home Run Picks & Best Bets for NLCS Game 3

Jackson Chourio has a pair of homers in the 2025 postseason, and he'll leave the yard again tonight.

Todd Cordell - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Todd Cordell • Betting Analyst
Oct 16, 2025 • 11:04 ET • 4 min read
Milwaukee Brewers right fielder Jackson Chourio (11) hits a solo home run against the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Photo By - Imagn Images. Milwaukee Brewers right fielder Jackson Chourio (11) hits a solo home run against the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The Los Angeles Dodgers are firmly in the driver’s seat of the National League Championship Series after taking each of the first two games on the road.

We saw plenty of power in those outings, with the two sides combining for four homers despite just nine total runs being scored.

Let’s take a closer look at a couple of players who could go yard with my favorite Brewers vs. Dodgers home run picks for this crucial Game 3 on October 16.

For more MLB picks, check out our full Brewers vs. Dodgers predictions!

Brewers home run pick

Jackson Chourio (+400 at Caesars)

Jackson Chourio has gone yard twice through eight games in this year’s playoffs, including Game 2 against the Dodgers. He profiles as the most likely member of the Brew Crew to homer in Game 3.

He's in great form at the plate and consistently making hard contact against Tyler Glasnow’s pitch mix (four seamer, slider, sinker, and curve).

Isolating those four pitches thrown by righties, Chourio has posted an average exit velocity of 94.9 miles per hour and a whopping 28% barrel rate over his last 25 at bats.

Through two games in this series alone, Chourio has already hit two balls 350+ feet and posted three exit velos of 98 MPH or higher (98, 106, and 111).

The two hardest hit balls came off of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who has given up multiple runs in just one of his past eight starts and — before Chourio’s homer — only a single homer since September 7.

Chourio is clearly capable of doing damage against anybody when he’s seeing the ball like he is right now.

Dodgers home run pick

Shohei Ohtani (+235 at Caesars)

Shohei Ohtani hasn’t homered since the Stone Age. Okay, it’s only been seven games, but that is an awful long time for him. His longest drought the entire season was 10 games, after all.

While he is admittedly not playing his best baseball, there are signs things could turn around in a hurry.

Ohtani posted two exit velos of 97 mph or higher last time out, including one a ridiculous 115 mph off the bat against Freddy Peralta.

The pitching matchups could play out favorably for him as well. Ohtani is 2-for-6 against Jose Quintana with a pair of homers, and it’s very possible he gets the nod to start Game 3.

Ohtani has a fantastic track record against Brewers relievers. He’s hit .324 with a .529 ISO and .853 SLG. Six of his 11 hits have left the yard.

He is a generational talent who is very hard to slow down for extended periods. He also hit more homers in Los Angeles than on the road this season. Perhaps some home cooking is just what he needs to get back on track.

How to watch Brewers vs Dodgers and Game 3 info

Location Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA
Date Thursday, October 16, 2025
First pitch 6:08 p.m. ET
TV TBS

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Todd Cordell - Covers
Betting Analyst

Todd Cordell is a data-driven betting analyst. He uses numbers to help identify value across a wide variety of sports, with NHL being his specialty. Shot props, in particular, have proven to be a very fruitful market. Todd has served as a betting analyst in the public sphere for many years, most recently with theScore covering the NHL and MLB.

When not writing about sports betting, Todd stays busy analyzing the New Jersey Devils with a fine-tooth comb for InfernalAccess, his Devils-centric blog. Todd attended Sheridan College and graduated in 2014 with a diploma in print journalism.

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