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My MLB moneyline predictions for today's Labor Day slate include backing a lot of pricey favorites, which include the Miami Marlins.
Before we dive in, be sure to check out all our MLB picks for Monday, Sept. 7.
MLB moneyline picks for September 7
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Bravesvs  Phillies |
40% |
 Metsvs  Marlins |
53% |
 Angelsvs  Red Sox |
38% |
 Guardiansvs  Orioles |
56% |
 Diamondbacksvs  Royals |
50% |
 Cubsvs  Brewers |
54% |
 Twinsvs  Tigers |
47% |
 Nationalsvs  Padres |
36% |
 Cardinalsvs  Giants |
46% |
 Redsvs  Dodgers |
62% |
 Blue Jaysvs  Athletics |
36% |
Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of 9-7.
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Expert MLB moneyline picks for Sept. 7
Braves vs Phillies: Braves
Braves win probability: 40%
The Phillies seem overpriced here with Jesus Luzardo on the mound. Meanwhile, Grant Holmes takes the rubber for the Braves, and he's been solid in his last three starts, owning a 1.93 ERA and 0.93 WHIP.
On top of that, the Atlanta bats have been far more consistent than Philadelphia's over the last week. Trust the dog.
Mets vs Marlins: Marlins
Marlins win probability: 53%
Neither starter is coming off a strong outing, but the Marlins are the side this afternoon.
Miami's bats have come alive over the last week, posting a 125 wRC+, .347 wOBA, and .791 OPS. Right-hander Eury Perez has taken a step back over his last few starts, but he's been pure nails at home all season.
I’d much rather trust him in this matchup than Mets starter Jonah Tong.
Angels vs Red Sox: Angels
Angels win probability: 38%
I'm beyond shocked to see right-hander Brayan Bello starting again, as the Red Sox have turned him into a reliever. Regardless, he must be faded, as he sports an 8.68 ERA, 5.78 xERA, and 2.04 WHIP over his last three outings.
Former punching bag turned serviceable starter, Grayson Rodriguez, has been great over his last three starts, sporting a 2.41 ERA.
Neither lineup has been hot, so let’s back the dog here.
Guardians vs Orioles: Orioles
Orioles win probability: 54%
Back the better arm here. Neither lineup enters Monday with a wRC+ above 80 over the last week of play. However, Trevor Rogers has some strong underlying metrics pointing toward improvement. Over his last three starts, he has a 2.39 xERA and 32.43% strikeout rate, and has done a great job limiting hard-hit balls.
Guardians left-hander Joey Cantillo has been great this season, but his numbers are starting to dip. Take the home team.
Diamondbacks vs Royals: Royals
Royals win probability: 59%
Simple reasoning: The Royals’ bats are on fire compared to those of the Diamondbacks, who own just a 62 wRC+, .260 wOBA, and .114 ISO over their last six games. Not to mention Jose Cabrera’s 6.16 ERA and 1.53 WHIP over his last five starts.
Noah Cameron and the Royals are worth backing.
Cubs vs Brewers: Brewers
Brewers win probability: 54%
The Chicago Cubs’ bats have gone cold over the last week, owning a 92 wRC+, .304 wOBA, and .135 ISO, while the Milwaukee Brewers have stayed hot. Matthew Boyd is not the most trustworthy arm in the Cubs’ rotation, but even if he puts together a strong outing, the Cubs’ bullpen is unreliable, with a 4.45 xERA on the year.
Trust the overall better team.
Twins vs Tigers: Twins
Twins win probability: 47%
Yes, let’s run to bet on the Tigers, who have posted a wRC+ below 95 for over a month now... NOT!
Twins or nothing here, as they have a 119 wRC+, .769 OPS, and .202 ISO over the last week, coming off a strong outing against the White Sox.
Southpaw Connor Prielipp has some solid underlying metrics pointing toward a strong outing, while Troy Melton has a 5.71 xERA over his last three starts.
Back the Twins.
Nationals vs Padres: Nationals
Nationals win probability: 36%
Welcome back, Nick Pivetta! The Padres right-hander will make his first start since April this evening, and there's no chance we’re trusting that cat.
Sure, Jake Irvin is on the mound, but the Nationals’ bats should start to heat up again with James Wood back in the lineup.
Take the risk on the Nationals.
Cardinals vs Giants: Cardinals
Cardinals win probability: 46%
Both lineups are on fire at the moment, making it tough to decide who is in the better spot to boom. It should be the Cardinals, as they draw Logan Webb, who has been falling apart over his last five starts.
Meanwhile, Cardinals right-hander Michael McGreevy has not been much better, but at least he has some strong expected numbers over his last five starts, with a 3.84 xERA while limiting hard-hit and barreled balls.
Take the dog.
Reds vs Dodgers: Dodgers
Dodgers win probability: 62%
Reds left-hander Brandon Williamson has been a liability all season long, sporting a 5.94 ERA, 5.56 xERA, and 1.65 WHIP. On the other side, Emmet Sheehan has not been much better over his last five outings, with a sub-6.00 ERA, but he does own a 3.23 xERA, making him more trustworthy.
The Dodgers should be able to light up Williamson early and often, as their bats have finally woken back up.
Blue Jays vs Athletics: Athletics
Athletics win probability: 36%
“But but... Dylan Cease!?”
Yes, fully aware it’s a Cease day for the Blue Jays, but the Athletics’ bats have been hot, while Jacob Lopez has been holding it down. Over his last three outings, he has a 2.12 ERA, 3.08 xERA, and 1.06 WHIP.
Take the value and back the A’s.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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