The Milwaukee Brewers face off against the Atlanta Braves in MLB action again tonight.
With Atlanta sending NL Cy Young favorite Chris Sale to the mound, my Brewers vs. Braves predictions expect another strong start from the All-Star southpaw.
See how that factors into my best bet and MLB picks for Wednesday, August 7.
Brewers vs Braves prediction
My best bet
Under 8 (-112 at DraftKings)
My analysis
The Atlanta Braves are giving the pill to Chris Sale, who has gone 13-3 with a 2.71 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and an OBA of .200 through 20 starts. The eight-time All-Star looks fully recovered from the injuries that held him in check the last several years and he has the best odds to win the NL Cy Young award.
The Milwaukee Brewers have been solid at the plate but I don't see them having much success against Sale, who ranks in the Top 10th percentile in hard-hit rate, average exit velocity, and strikeout rate. Sale's previous start also came against the Brewers a week ago, when he limited them to two runs through 5 2/3 innings.
Sale's counterpart in that July 31 showdown was Freddy Peralta, who held the Braves to just three hits and two runs in six innings. Peralta is back on the mound tonight and while his 3.89 ERA doesn't jump off the page, his 1.19 WHIP and .220 OBA are impressive.
Peralta does a great job of making batters miss, sitting in the Top 10th percentile in whiff rate and strikeout rate. That should lead to success against a Braves lineup that is 27th and 26th in those categories, respectively.
The Braves have a stacked lineup on paper, but they've struggled to make contact since losing reigning NL MVP Ronald Acuna Jr. to a season-ending injury in May. Over the last 30 days, they are 28th in the majors in batting average (.224) while plating just 3.83 runs per game.
In addition to a pair of strong starters on each side, both teams have terrific bullpens. Atlanta's relief corps is second in the majors in ERA (2.98) and WHIP (1.17) while Milwaukee's ranks third in ERA (3.28) and fourth in WHIP (1.20).
Brewers vs Braves same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 8
Chris Sale Over 1.5 walks
Freddy Peralta Over 5.5 strikeouts
As impressive as Sale has been, he has struggled with his control lately. In his last eight starts, he has walked 17 batters in 48 1/3 innings after issuing just five free passes in 50 innings over his previous eight. Sale has walked more than 1.5 batters in six of eight and the Brewers have the third-highest walk rate (9.6%) in the majors.
Peralta has racked up 6+ punchouts in 12 of his last 15 starts — including last week against the Braves when he fanned seven. Atlanta has the fifth-highest strikeout rate in the majors (24.1%) and that number has ballooned to 29.8% over the last two weeks.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Brewers vs Braves odds
Brewers vs Braves live odds
Brewers vs Braves opening odds
- Run line: Milwaukee +1.5 (-160) | Atlanta -1.5 (+135)
- Moneyline: Milwaukee +135 | Atlanta -160
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-110) | Under 7.5 (-110)
Brewers vs Braves spread and Over/Under analysis
- The total quickly ticked up to 8 but the Moneyline has stayed steady as of 10 a.m. ET.
- The Brewers destroyed the Braves 10-0 last night and they're atop the NL Central with a 63-49 mark while Atlanta is second in the NL East with a 60-52 record.
- The Braves have gone 13-4 in Sales last 17 starts while the Brewers are 7-9 in Peralta's previous 16 outings.
- The Brewers will be without their top hitter Christian Yelich (slashing .315/.406/.504) who has been sidelined since July 23 with a back injury.
Brewers vs Braves trend
The Under is 64-32-4 in Atlanta's last 100 games. Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Braves.
Brewers vs Braves game info
| Location: | Truist Park, Atlanta, GA |
| Date: | Wednesday, 8-7-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Wisconsin, Bally Sports South |
| Brewers starting pitcher: | Freddy Peralta (6-6, 3.89 ERA) |
| Braves starting pitcher: | Chris Sale (13-3, 2.71 ERA) |
Brewers vs Braves latest injuries
Brewers vs Braves weather
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