Brewers vs Braves Predictions, Picks, Odds: Acuna Secures 50th Steal

After a rain delay and a 17-run opener, the Atlanta Braves look to win yet another home series on Saturday when they host the Milwaukee Brewers at Truist Park.

Friday night saw a fireworks display as back-to-back seventh-inning home runs from Austin Riley and Matt Olson gave Atlanta a 10-4 lead. Marcell Ozuna added another home run for the Braves, while Abraham Toro’s three-run bomb in the eighth made it a tighter finish than the home fans anticipated. 

Atlanta will look to make it four wins in five meetings against Milwaukee with Bryce Elder making his second straight start against the Brewers. Meanwhile, the Brewers are hopeful Julio Teheran’s outing last weekend against the Braves can be replicated on the road.  

We break down all of the action in our MLB betting picks for Brewers vs. Braves on Saturday, July 29. 

Brewers vs Braves odds

Brewers vs Braves predictions

Ronald Acuna Jr. is making history, just in case you haven’t been paying attention this season. And in last night's 10-7 win over the Milwaukee Brewers, Acuna inched closer to a major milestone when he stole second base in the fifth inning.

It was an important moment in the game, as Ozzie Albies drove him in during the at-bat to make it 5-4 and put Atlanta ahead for good. However, it was also Acuna’s 49th stolen base, keeping him on pace to break the 70-steal plateau and possibly push for 80 steals in a single season. 

Acuna’s ability to get on base is setting him up to steal — and it’s not just second base that is in danger. Acuna has stolen third multiple times this season, including a daring swipe of third against JT Realmuto. He’s run on the strongest arms in the league, and he’s only been caught in eight of his 57 attempts so far this season.

One of those eight came last Sunday when he was picked off second base. Of course, the reason he was on second base is that he stole it after his leadoff single to open the game. 

The Brewers have allowed 0.86 stolen bases per game, which is the seventh-worst mark in the league this season. In addition, three of their starters have allowed at least eight. 

Julio Teheran’s one of those three and Acuna accounted for two of the three hits Teheran allowed last weekend. If he gets on base today, he’s going to have one thing in mind — and that’s steal No. 50.

It’s a milestone that many weren’t sure he’d reach before the rule changes, and it’s one he’s now set to blow right past. He’s got a chance to become just the third player with 50 steals and 30 home runs in a single season, and the first ever to go 40/50. 

First, he has to steal that next base. He’s playing well, registering another two hits last night on top of walking twice. He’s facing a pitcher he’s stolen on before and won't be the last to steal on. I’ll take him at plus money to get that milestone tonight.  

My best bet: Ronald Acuna Jr. Over 0.5 stolen bases (+102)

Brewers vs Braves same-game parlay

Ronald Acuna Jr. to steal a base (-110)

Braves ML (-200)

Braves TT Over 5.5 (-105)

Both team to score 3+ runs (-155)

+310 at DraftKings

We’ve discussed what Acuna can do once he gets on base, but it’s what the Braves are doing at the plate that feeds into our same-game parlay.

Atlanta’s heavily favored to win the game, just as they’ve done against the Brewers four times in the past 10 days. And while Teheran pitched well last weekend, he’s not in Milwaukee anymore. Why’s that important? 

Because Atlanta’s gonna be muggy and hot today, and the Home Run Forecast Index has Truist Park as a 10 rating for home runs tonight. Makes sense, given four were driven out last night, and Teheran has been bad on the road this season, giving up at least seven hits and four earned in his last two road starts against the Mets and Phillies. 

Elder’s not been great at home either, with better splits away from Truist Park and I doubt Atlanta’s going to keep Milwaukee off the scoreboard. The Brewers have scored 3+ runs in each of their last four games, and the only time they failed to score that many in their last 12 games was that matchup with Elder.

Combine all of those factors, and you’re set up for a solid same-game parlay. Look for the Braves to win another high-scoring affair, with Acuna being in the middle of all the action for Atlanta’s high-powered offense. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Brewers vs Braves moneyline and Over/Under analysis

Last weekend, Teheran and Elder squared off in a game that wasn’t decided until late, but it was a bit of an anomaly for both pitchers. And even then, it wasn’t enough for the Brewers to get the job done, as their bullpen was unable to come through. 

That’s why I’d go with Atlanta to win as -200 favorites, although I’d recommend parlaying it rather than betting it straight-up. The Brewers are getting a hefty +168 price if you’d like to tail them to win. 

The Braves are also favored by 1.5 on the run line, with the total expected to be high as most books have it at either 10 or 10.5 for the game. The five-inning line is also fairly high, with the Over 5.5 juiced a fair amount and some books setting it at an even 6.

Atlanta’s done their part for the total, going Over its team total 29 times in the last 44 games. With the conditions contributing to the ball jumping out of the park, and the exit velocities both these pitchers allowed last weekend, I’d take the Over in this one with the Braves covering the run line. 

Trend to know

The Over is 30-19 in Atlanta’s last 49 home games. Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Braves

Brewers vs Braves game info

Starting pitchers

Julio Teheran (2-4, 3.75 ERA): Teheran was fortunate to only allow three hits and one run in his six IP last Sunday. He got out of the first inning with the pickoff of Acuna, and he repeatedly gave up hard-hit balls right at his fielders. In the fifth inning alone, he got three outs on balls all hit with over 100 exit velocities. He’s got an ERA of 5.94 in the month of July despite the strong outing, and away from home, he’s got an ERA of 5.16 and has given up seven home runs in 22 2/3 innings pitched.

Bryce Elder (7-2, 3.30 ERA): Elder was terrific in the first half of the season, earning a spot in the 2023 All-Star Game, but it’s been a bit rough for him since then, with an ERA of 7.27 through two starts. His slider efficiency has dipped, but he was able to scatter four hits and two runs across six IP last weekend against the Brewers. He’s been less effective at Truist Park, with an ERA nearly a run higher at home, and the metrics indicate he’s due to continue having a bit of regression as the season rolls along.  

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