Braves vs Mets Picks and Predictions: deGrom is Near-Unhittable Everywhere, Especially At Home

The only thing that has slowed down Jacob deGrom is injuries, as he left his last two starts early. But the Mets ace says he's healthy, so we have no problem laying the juice with NY tonight in our MLB betting picks.

Posted: Jun 21, 2021 11:58 AM ET Updated: Jun 21, 2021 3:20 PM ET Est Time: 4 min
Jacob deGrom New York Mets MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The MLB betting board for Monday is headlined by an NL East doubleheader between the Atlanta Braves and New York Mets.

Mets ace Jacob deGrom is expected to start the first game which has the Mets opening as -174 home favorites.

Here are our best free Braves vs. Mets picks and predictions for Game 1 of a doubleheader on Monday, June 21, with the first pitch scheduled for 5:10 p.m. ET. 

Braves vs Mets game info

Location: Citi Field, New York, NY
Date: Monday, June 21, 2021
Time: 5:10 p.m. ET
TV: WPIX, Bally Sports South

Braves vs Mets odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

Compare MLB odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Covers Writer Icon

MLB sharp money and line movement report

By Patrick Everson

With Jacob deGrom toeing the slab to open this doubleheader – keep in mind, twinbills are seven-inning games this season – the Mets are all the way out to -240 favorites at TwinSpires Sportsbook, after opening -180. As of 2 p.m. ET, New York is drawing 68 percent of moneyline tickets and 84 percent of moneyline cash. "The public is all over the Mets," TwinSpires trading analyst Zachary Lucas said. The total is at 4.5 (Over -127) from an opener of 4.5 (Over -110), with 58 percent of tickets on the Under and 60 percent of money on the Over.

Check out the full line movement for this game

Braves vs Mets betting preview

Starting pitchers

Kyle Muller (0-0, 18.00 ERA): The 23-year-old southpaw is making his first career start tonight for the Braves. Muller made a reliever appearance for his MLB debut on June 16, surrendering two runs on four hits in one inning against Boston. A second-round pick in 2016, Muller has a fastball that averages around 95 mph, with a hard slider and and curveball.

Jacob deGrom (6-2, 0.54 ERA): What more can be said about the man, the myth, the legend, Jacob deGrom? The righthander is the best pitcher in the world and is in the middle of one of the greatest seasons in MLB history. The only thing that could derail him is injuries but that is a concern with the two-time Cy Young winner leaving his last two starts early. 

The two injuries were not related — he left with right flexor tendinitis after six one-hit innings against the Padres, followed by a sore shoulder from batting which derailed an eight-strikeout performance in just three innings versus the Cubs. 

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Braves: Marcell Ozuna LF (Out), Travis d'Arnaud C (Out).
Mets: Jeff McNeil 3B (Probable), Michael Conforto LF (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 17-5-1 in the Mets' last 23 games as a home favorite. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Mets.

Moneyline pick

The Braves entered this season having won the NL East for three straight years and opened as +135 favorites to finish first in the division again. But it's been tough sledding for Atlanta, who is currently third in the division and sits three games below .500. The team at the top of the NL East are the New York Mets, who are 36-29 and have won 20 of their last 27 games at home. 

What makes the Mets even more likable as a favorite today is the presence of star pitcher Jacob deGrom. DeGrom has been nothing short of incredible, going 6-2 with a 0.54 ERA and 0.51 WHIP, with 111 strikeouts through 67 innings.

Although deGrom has left his last two starts early due to injury, the fact that the Mets feel confident enough to give him another start makes us confident enough to believe in him too. Especially with the game scheduled for just seven innings as the first leg of a doubleheader. 

The Braves will send Kyle Muller to the mound for his first career MLB start. There isn't much information to go off of with Muller, who had a 4.60 ERA and 1.50 WHIP at AAA-Gwinnett, but he gave up two runs on four hits in a relief appearance that was his MLB debut less than a week ago. 

You've got a starting pitcher on pace for a record-shattering year who just happens to be pitching at home for the top team in his division. And they're facing a young pitcher making his first career start. Don't overthink this one and take the faves at -174.

PREDICTION: Mets (-174)

Over/Under pick

The Mets have shown improved play at the plate recently, ranking 11th in the majors with an OPS of .726 over the last 30 days. That said, they averaged just 4.04 runs per game over that span and still rank second-last in the majors with 3.72 runs per game over the entire season.

The Braves have been one of the best hitting teams in the majors but they typically struggle in away contests, where they plate just 4.28 runs per game with an OPS of .692. 

If Atlanta has trouble hitting on the road in general they'll definitely have a hard time making contact against deGrom. The Mets stud hasn't played against the Braves this year but has dominated them in the past, posting a 1.73 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in 12 starts against Atlanta since the start of the 2018 season. 

With the Mets going 21-8-2 to the Under in their last 31 games at Citi Field and the Braves going below the total in 11 of their last 16 road games against teams with a winning record, back the Under. 

PREDICTION: Under 4.5 (-103)

Braves vs Mets betting card

  • Mets ML (-174)
  • Under 4.5 (-103)

Picks made on 6/21/2021 at 11:30 a.m. ET

MLB parlays

Did you know that if you parlayed today’s MLB Braves vs. Mets picks, you could win $21.04 on a $10 bet?

Use our MLB parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.

Where can I bet on MLB odds?

You can bet on MLB odds at every online and casino sportsbook, including MLB moneylines, runlines, Over/Under totals, and a ton of MLB prop odds. Head over to our best-suggested sportsbooks for the top spots to bet on MLB odds in your area.

Popular Content

Covers Contests Icon

Free Contests

Test your handicapping skills for a chance to win over $200,000 in prizes
Play free contests
Covers 25 Years Logo Established in 1995,
Covers is the world
leader in sports
betting information.
Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo